FXUS64 KMEG 100529
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1129 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST FOR MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS
DISCUSSION...
COLDER TEMPERATURES AS OF 00Z ALREADY IN PLACE DESPITE CIRRUS
BROKEN DECK. UPPER TEENS AND LOW TWENTIES IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON NORTHERN EDGE OF CIRRUS CANOPY...WILL
PROGRESS TOWARDS THE CWA AS CLOUDS SLOWLY ERODE AND SHIFT EAST.
UPDATED GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. ALSO RAISED WIND SPEED GRIDS SLIGHTLY
FOR THIS EVENING AS CAA STILL TAKING PLACE..AND GUSTS TO 20-25KTS
STILL OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN MIDSOUTH COUNTIES.
JAB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009/
DISCUSSION...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. POLAR AIRMASS IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S...EXCEPT 40S
ACROSS FAR EASTERN SECTIONS.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MAINLY FOCUSING ON TEMPERATURES. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH
SHORT TERM. THIS IS REASONABLE AS POLAR AIRMASS WITH VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES TO OUR NORTH SLIDES INTO OUR REGION.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISENTROPIC PRECIPITATION EVENT IS SHAPING UP FOR SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
MODELS DO HAVE SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES. HAVE USED A
GFS/NAM BLEND WHICH BRINGS PRECIPITATION IN EARLY SATURDAY. STILL
BELIEVE TYPE SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET IT IS
POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES COULD BE AT FREEZING FOR SOME LOCATION IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LATER FORECASTS WILL HELP WITH THOSE DETAILS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD SEE WARM UP WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE
RAINFALL MONDAY/TUESDAY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT FOR DAY 7 WITH GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH
UPPER TROUGH AND PUSH OF COLDER AIRMASS. THEREFORE FOR NOW WILL BE
CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES GOING FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.
BELLES
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS
IN THE KJBR VICINITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
ARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 27 38 23 45 / 0 10 10 10
MKL 24 35 18 41 / 0 10 10 10
JBR 22 34 19 43 / 0 0 10 10
TUP 29 40 22 45 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
