FXUS64 KTSA 252255
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
NEAR PERSISTENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE MAINTAINING A VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE STARVED UPPER TROUGH IS ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION THIS 
AFTERNOON AND PRODUCING PATCHY CLOUDS WHICH WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY 
THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE PULLS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. 

FAIR...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MILD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM WILL START 
AFFECTING THE REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY BUT RAIN IS 
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING WITH 
THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SEEING THE BEST CHANCES FOR 
PRECIPITATION. 

ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME AROUND TOWARDS THE ECMWF THERE 
REMAINS ENOUGH DOUBT ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COMING OUT 
OF THE SOUTHWEST TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LEVEL LOW. HAVE LOWERED 
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY THE LOWS AND EXPECT 
TO SEE A HARD FREEZE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 
MORNINGS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  55  37  66 /   0   0   0   0 
FSM   32  55  31  65 /   0   0   0   0 
MLC   34  57  34  68 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   31  54  27  67 /   0   0   0   0 
FYV   30  49  28  63 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   32  48  31  63 /   0   0   0   0 
MKO   32  55  34  65 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   32  51  31  66 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   33  55  36  66 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   35  58  35  65 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07