FXUS63 KARX 081751
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1150 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

.UPDATED...CONCERNING THE WINTER STORM

JUST AN UPDATE ON THE LATEST TRENDS WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE WINTER
STORM MOVING THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEED AREA-WIDE IN THE
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE. WE NOW BELIEVE A HIGHER THREAT
EXISTS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THOSE AREAS UNDER A WINTER STORM
WARNING. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A BLIZZARD WARNING AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER RIDGETOPS AND OPEN AREAS ALONG THE MISS RIVER AND
EAST...ARE SURE TO SEE MAJOR DRIFTING AND WHITEOUT.

ANOTHER SIGNAL NOW SEEN IN THE MODELS IS A DEEP DENDRITIC ZONE FOR
CRYSTAL GROWTH /-12C TO -18C/ THAT IS SURFACE BASED IN THE
COMMA/DEFORMATION REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...IT APPEARS 2-3 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW FROM 12-18Z WED COULD FALL...AN INCREASE FROM YESTERDAYS
THINKING. THIS IS IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA. THE IMPACT OF THESE
COMBINED CHANGES CANNOT BE OVERSTATED. WITH WINDS OF 25-35 MPH AND
HIGHER GUSTS WITH 20:1 RATIO SNOW FALLING...BLOWING/WHITEOUT/STRANDED
VEHICLES/POSSIBLE LOSE OF LIFE WEDNESDAY IS NOW EVEN MORE
WORRISOME. ANY ASSISTANCE OUR MEDIA FRIENDS CAN GIVE TO GET THIS
MESSAGE OUT IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA IS MUCH APPRECIATED. WE
NEED TO GET PEOPLE TO STAY HOME WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...IT APPEARS THE OVERALL SNOW TOTALS WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED
A BIT UP WITH 12 TO 16 INCHES IN MANY AREAS. WITH THESE CONDITIONS...
ROAD CREWS WILL LIKELY NOT BE OUT WEDNESDAY UNTIL LATER.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ017-WIZ029-WIZ032-WIZ033-WIZ034-
     WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ043-WIZ044-WIZ053-WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MNZ086-MNZ087-MNZ094-MNZ095.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ079-MNZ088-MNZ096.

IA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR IAZ008-IAZ009-IAZ010-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ011-IAZ030.

&&

$$

BAUMGARDT/RIECK/WELVAERT/HALBACH