FXUS63 KIND 301645
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1145 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT BMG...VFR CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.

SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW STRATUS NEAR 4000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA. 
PROGGING THE BACK EDGE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHICH HAPPENS TO 
COINCIDE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE...BRINGS SCATTERED CLOUDS TO CENTRAL 
INDIANA BY 1930Z TO 2130Z DEPENDING UPON YOUR LOCATION. 

BY EVENING ALL STRATUS SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE AREA AS THE SURFACE 
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION... AT WHICH POINT ONLY A FEW HIGH 
CIRRUS CLOUDS SEEMS POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT 
SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY 
NIGHT. THUS MORE VFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO SHORT TERM GRIDS...GIVEN THE 
MORNING CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAVE TRIMMED HIGH 
TEMPERATURES BY 1-3 DEGREES. FURTHERMORE...CLOUD COVER SEEMS TO BE 
HANGING TOUGH THIS MORNING PER VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS. COVER 
REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF INDIANA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND 
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THUS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE DECREASING CLOUD 
TREND SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER IN THE NEAR TERM THEN ON
PRECIPITATION EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

AT 07Z THE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO KENTUCKY AND THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WAS NEARLY OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE UPPER
TROF AXIS WAS STILL TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM THEN DIFFERENCES ARISE
WITH HANDLING OF SURFACE LOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL
INTERACT AND THAT OF COURSE IMPACTS THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. NAM IS
THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING....WHILE OPERATIONAL GFS IS FARTHEST EAST AND NORTH. BOTH
COULD BE OUTLIERS AS ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET/SREF AND EVEN THE PARALLEL
GFS RUN ARE IN BETWEEN THEIR SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD
THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS RATHER THAN EITHER THE NAM OR
THE GFS.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING /AS CAN
CURRENTLY BE SEEN TO OUR NORTHWEST IN SATELLITE IMAGES/...MODEL CU
RULES INDICATE THAT THESE SHOULD FILL BACK IN EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. WILL START THE DAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY ALL AREAS THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. MAV
NUMBERS LOOK A BIT WARM WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...SO TRIMMED A
BIT.

TONIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO OUR AREA. WITH THEH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS MOST AREAS.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ON
TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS IS TREK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE MOMENT AM CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. GOING WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION ALSO GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. DURING
THIS TIME FRAME A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING.
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT FOR
ANY POPS HIGHER THAN CHANCE. BY THEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL
SNOW. FACTORS AGAINST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS EVENT ARE THE
WARM GROUND /RECALL HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR TUESDAY/ AND AIR
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. THAT BEING SAID CANNOT RULE OUT
AROUND AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN CURRENT SCENARIO. OF COURSE
THAT FORECAST WILL CHANGE DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW. COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
PUBLIC...CS
UPDATE...PUMA