FXUS62 KCAE 272335
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
635 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 
SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE 
MONDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTERED NEAR THE AREA. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO 
FAR SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT. THE IN-HOUSE RADIATION SCHEME SUPPORTS 
LOWS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE MAV AND MET MOS. THE FREEZE 
WARNING APPEARS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DRY RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE 
WAS CLOSE WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. USED THE COLDER LOW 
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF STRONG RADIATIONAL 
COOLING. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA 
MONDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SUPPORTS SHOWERS BUT COVERAGE 
SHOULD BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL DRYNESS AND LACK OF STRONG 
UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS. 
THE MODELS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE 
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLAN TO FORECAST 
LIKELY POPS BECAUSE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SATELLITE/OBS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE PRESSURE 
FIELD STILL SHOWS A BIT OF A GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...BUT MODELS 
INDICATE THAT THIS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX OVERNIGHT. VWP WINDS 25-30 
KTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO SLACKEN AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO 
SATURDAY. G

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 
EARLY MONDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY AS 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY 
AGAIN OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM 
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ015-
     016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR 
     SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR 
     GAZ040-063>065-077.

&&

$$