FXUS64 KBMX 261144 AAA
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
544 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 509 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009/
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. THIS
WILL BRING A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR OVER THE AREA. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. CONDITIONS WILL
RAPIDLY BE CHANGING ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY EXITS
TO OUR EAST IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROF
WHICH WILL GENERATE AN UPPER CLOSED LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO
HELP AMPLIFY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WITH A COMPLEX SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS ONE...IT IS NORMAL FOR
COMPUTER MODELS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN RUN TO RUN. THIS SYSTEM IS NO
EXCEPTION. SEVERAL DAYS AGO WHEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS WERE FIRST
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM...IT HAD ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR A STORM
SYSTEM THAT COULD PRODUCE SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH PLENTY OF
COLD AIR AND GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...AS MODELS TYPICALLY
TEND TO DO...IT BEGINS BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND MANY OF THE NEEDED
VARIABLES. THEY HAVE NOW BACKED OFF FROM BRINGING IN SUCH COLD
AIRMASS. ALSO...THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
SHIFT AROUND. IT IS PRETTY EVIDENT THAT THE GFS IS STRUGGLING WITH
A SOLUTION BY LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE. THE FIRST 72 HOURS...ALL
MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...PAST THIS
POINT IN TIME...ALL THE MEMBERS BEGIN TO DIFFER IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. THIS IS EVEN MORE EVIDENT ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE
SYSTEM.
SO IN LAYMEN TERMS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
COULD BRIEFLY CLEAR THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE.
10/ARM
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
NO CIGS OR LOW VSBY PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED FOR THE 24HR FORECAST
PERIOD. CALM WINDS EARLY ON WILL BECOME NW AS A DRY REINFORCING
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AL TODAY. EXPECT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WINDS OUT
OF THE NW THAT WILL BE A TAD HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND A LITTLE
GUSTY...WITH SUSTAINED NEAR 9-14 KTS/GUSTS 15-20 KTS...TAPERING DOWN
AFTER SUNSET AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER AL.
08/MNK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 53 30 55 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 57 32 55 33 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 56 33 55 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 56 32 58 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
CALERA 57 35 58 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 57 34 57 36 63 / 10 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 60 33 59 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
TROY 60 32 59 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
10/08
