FXUS62 KFFC 240223 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
923 PM EST WED DEC 23 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO BUMP MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE POCKETS OF
STRATUS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. 00 UTC SOUNDINGS FROM FFC AND BMX INDICATE STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW (30 KT) AND SATURATED LAYER ALREADY DEVELOPING IN
850 TO 800 HPA LAYER. STRATUS DECK IS DEVELOPING ACROSS AL/MS AS
EVIDENT ON IR FOG PRODUCT THIS EVENING. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF W/NW GA OVERNIGHT...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES UP IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
CLASSIC CAD SETUP STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS STRONG SFC HIGH MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR WIND SPEEDS IN MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS IT APPEARS SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
MSR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM EST WED DEC 23 2009/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS OVER MS/AL MOVING EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT
THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. WE STILL HAVE A
FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OVER GA WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
SHOWERS EAST OF THE ARE THROUGH 14Z-16Z THU. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES EAST THE RIDGE DOES WEAKEN SOME BUT NORTH AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GA BECOME WEDGED IN AND SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE
THROUGH THU EVENING. THE WEDGE EVENTUALLY WEAKENS ENOUGH THU NIGHT
AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE STATE THAT INSTABILITY INDICES RISE SOME SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA
BETWEEN 00Z-12Z FRI. THIS FRONT IS A VERY FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z FRI MORNING. SINCE THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH SO FAST IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME
TO CAUSE ANY MORE MAJOR FLOODING ACROSS THE STATE. QPF NUMBERS
SHOWING 1-1.5 INCHES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. LOOKS LIKE THE BIGGEST
THREAT WILL BE VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS THU NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN THU AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. LOOKING FOR SE WINDS IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUST ESPECIALLY IN THE N GA MOUNTAINS WHERE
THE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST. ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH
THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN
PART OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE RAIN WILL HAVE ENDED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN JUST BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. THIS RIDGE STAYS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK KEEPING THE REGION FAIRLY PRECIPITATION FREE. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. DIFFERENCES OCCUR
IN THE MODELS TUESDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING A SHORT WAVE/PRECIP
INTO THE CWA WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN DELAYING THE ONSET OF THIS SHORT WAVE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS
AND AT THIS POINT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
01
AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY BKN250.
WEDGING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TOMORROW MORNING WILL ALLOW
FOR LOWER CEILINGS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES BY 12Z. TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW RA MOVING IN TO TAF
SITES BY 00Z AND CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON 13-18KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 23-28KTS. AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY...THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF TS SOUTH OF ATL.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 36 49 40 49 33 / 0 40 100 40 5
ATLANTA 39 52 41 48 30 / 0 80 100 30 5
BLAIRSVILLE 34 47 38 45 26 / 0 40 100 30 5
CARTERSVILLE 39 52 41 49 27 / 5 80 100 20 5
COLUMBUS 43 58 48 57 32 / 0 90 100 20 0
GAINESVILLE 37 46 37 45 31 / 0 40 100 30 5
MACON 37 58 49 59 33 / 0 60 100 40 0
ROME 40 54 41 52 30 / 5 90 100 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 37 53 43 52 27 / 0 80 100 20 5
VIDALIA 39 60 54 65 38 / 0 20 100 70 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...
TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.
&&
$$
