FXUS61 KAKQ 011831
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
131 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DRIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST AND MOVES UP
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW MOVES
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PUSHING A COLD
FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR TWEEKS TO CRNT GRIDS. OTHR THAT SOME CI MOVG INTO THE
SWRN CNTYS LATE...HIGH PRS OVRHD RESULTS IN FULL SUN. 12Z SNDGS
SPRT MAXES IN THE L-M50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HI PRES SITS NR THE CSTL CAROLINAS THIS EVE...LEADING TO NR
CALM CONDS AND GOOD CHC THAT TEMPS DROP QUIKLY...B4 LEVELING OFF
OVRNGT. INITIALLY STARTS OUT CLR...THEN INCRSG WAA LEADS TO M/H
CLDNS SPRDG INTO RGN (LT) FM THE WSW AHD OF NEXT STM SYS (TAKING
SHAPE INVOF WRN GULF CST STATES). LO TEMPS IN THE 30S IN MANY
LCTNS...L40S RIGHT NR THE CST.

FOR WED...LO PRES CONTS TO STRENGTHEN TRACKING NE FM THE CNTRL
GULF CST STATES (AND ULVL TROUGH DIVES SE THROUGH THE UPR
PLAINS/WRN LAKES RGN). WL HV INCRSG/THCKNG CLDNS WED MRNG (CHC RA
SW PORTION)...THEN PDS OF RA FM THE AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS. RAISED
POPS TO 80-90% FOR ALL AREAS BY AFT 21Z/02. LLVL FLO INCRSS FM
THE SE...RESULTING IN BRZY/WNDY CONDS (LT). HI TEMPS FM THE L/M50S
FAR INTR TO M60S SE.

MDLS RMN CONSISTENT WRT WWD/INLAND TRACK TO SFC LO PRES MVG NE INVOF
MTNS WED NGT...THEN INTO INTR NEW ENG THU. AFT INITIAL AREA OF
WAA/PCPN LIFTS NE THROUGH RGN WED EVE...ANOTHER RND OF SHRAS/(PSBL
T CNTRL/E) XPCTD W/ SFC CDFNT/MLVL TROUGH DURG OVRNGT HRS WED NGT.
L/MLVL FLO BCMS SWLY ERY THU...LEADING TO SGFNT DRY AIR PUNCH INTO
FA. LWRD POPS SHARPLY AFT (ERY) THU MRNG HRS. WRT TEMPS...XPCTG
GENLY STDY OR RISING RDGS (MNLY M/U50S TO L60S) WED NGT...THEN HI
TEMPS THU WELL INTO THE 60S (MAYBE L70S SE?). TURNING COLDER THU
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT
TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST.
INITIALLY...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE WELL
SE OF THE RGN ON FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN AS COLD
ADVECTION PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THE LLVL NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DRY WX...BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL STILL
SEE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS AROUND
FRIDAY.

SEEMS LIKE THE PD FM DEC 1ST THROUGH THE 7TH HAS BCM A FAVORED TIME
FOR A WINTRY PCPN THREAT. THE 00Z/02 RUNS OF OP GFS...PARALLEL
GFS AND ECMWF EACH SIGNALING PTNTL FOR LO PRES TRACKING NE NR THE
CST ON SAT...AS M/ULVL TROUGH SWINGS INTO/ACRS THE MDATLC RGN. HV
CHOSEN TO INCRS CLDS ON FRI NGT/SAT BUT LV POPS ALONE FOR NOW (KPG
PSBL MIXED PTYPE INLAND). NEXT FEW SHIFTS WL NEED TO MONITOR MDL
TRENDS FOR THIS PSBL SITU (THIS WKND).

ONCE THIS WAVE CLEARS AND THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED. 

FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RAN WITH HPC/MOS GUIDE VALUES...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO COLD WEATHER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SW FLOW ALLOWS
READINGS TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLR SKY AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE AFTN AND EVE HOURS. NEXT
WEATHER MAKER IS A GULF COAST LOW THAT WILL PUSH NORTH BRINGING
INCRSNG CLDS FOR WEDS AM INTO THE AFTN...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD 
THE AREA WEDS AFTN AND PSBL TSMT WEDS EVE. LOOK FOR MVFR CONDS TO
PERSIST LATE WEDS INTO THUR WITH IFR/LIFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
GUSTY SW WNDS AROUND 25 KTS CSTL SITES THURS. AS LOW MOVES N OF US
LATE THURS XPCT IMPRVG CONDS LATE THURS INTO FRI. ANOTHER LOW
AFFECTS THE AREA SAT AND WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE WE COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF WINTERY PRECIP INLAND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
ONGOING CAA WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY THRU THIS MORNING. WITH 
THE EXCEPTION OF THE SRN COASTAL WATERS, ALL SCA'S WILL END BY 10 AM 
THIS MORNING. HI PRES RETURNS FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE LOW PRES  
APPROACHES FROM THE SW MID WEEK. 

NEXT SYS LIFTS FROM THE GOM AND MVS W ALONG THE MTNS WED INTO THU. 
THIS SYS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS WED 
AFTN/EVENING...FOLLOWING BY A COLD FRONT EARLY THU. ALL MDLS SHOW 
VERY STRONG 950/850 MB WINDS OF 60 KT+ BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MVS 
THRU EARLY THU. THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN, BUT WINDS 
WILL STILL BE VERY STRONG THANKS TO THE GRADIENT...GUSTING TO 
BORDERLINE GALE FORCE. SCA'S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS WED 
AFTN. 

BEHIND THE FRONT... THE NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE SCA WINDS INTO 
FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TO BRIEFLY CALM THE CONDITIONS 
OVER THE WATER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NOV WAS A WET MONTH ACRS THE FA...W/ MANY AREAS HVG PCPN DEPARTURES
OF A CPL OF INCHES ABV NRML.

FOR RIC...
NOV 2009 ENDED UP THE WETTEST ON RCRD. OFFICIALLY...RIC MEASURED
9.60 INCHES OF PCPN (OLD RECORD WAS 7.64 INCHES IN 1959).

FOR ORF...
NOV 2009 ENDED UP THE WETTEST ON RCRD. OFFICIALLY...ORF MEASURED
9.20 INCHES OF PCPN (OLD RECORD WAS 7.01 INCHES IN 1951). 

ORF ALSO HAD ITS 6TH WETTEST FALL SEASON (SEPT THRU NOV) ON RCRD
WITH 20.18 INCHES OF PCPN (WETTEST FALL WAS 25.77 INCHES IN 1877...
AND MORE RECENTLY IN 1999 ORF MEASURED 22.80 INCHES).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/ESS
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...SMF/KLL
CLIMATE...