FXUS64 KMEG 062056
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
256 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS. AS FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION TONIGHT SOME
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
SOME QUESTION INTO THE TIMING OF THE RAIN AND WHAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LIKE AT THAT TIME. WITH VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL. WHILE SOME FREEZING
PRECIPITATION MAY FALL OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
IT APPEARS THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT IF AT ALL. NO ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE
UPDATED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...
RAIN WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A SHORT
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING MORE RAIN TO FORECAST AREA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN
OVER SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS STORM SO THERE
MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. AT
THIS TIME...IT APP PEARS THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER SO WILL MAKE
CHANGES TO THE HWO AND REMOVE MENTION OF TORNADOES. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL END
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY
BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EARLY FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON.
ARS
&&
AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE (06/18Z-07/18Z)
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 07/07Z...THEN CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR FROM THE WEST AFTER 07/07Z. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR ONCE AGAIN AT KJBR AFT 07/15Z. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND OCCUR FOR A FEW
HOURS AT EACH TAF SITE BEGINNING AT KJBR AT 07/03Z...SPREADING TO
KTUP BY 07/09Z. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY FREEZING
OR FROZEN PRECIP AT KJBR/KMKL. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT VFR EXCEPT NEAR 5SM -RA AT KTUP BETWEEN 07/09-07/13Z.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 35 48 39 57 / 80 10 60 90
MKL 32 45 35 55 / 70 20 40 90
JBR 31 46 34 47 / 70 10 40 90
TUP 35 46 42 58 / 60 50 60 90
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
