FXUS64 KMEG 290552
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1152 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 858 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/
UPDATE...00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...INFRARED/11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AS OF
8 PM CST ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOISTEN UP OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES TOWARDS SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...NO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS ATMOSPHERE IS DRY AND WILL NEED SOME TIME FOR LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE. WILL UPDATE GRIDS TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF TONIGHT/S
FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SUNNY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVE
INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH RAIN TO PREVENT MEMPHIS AND JACKSON
FROM HAVING A RECORD DRIEST NOVEMBER. THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND OUT OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY
EVENING BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO THEN DEVELOPS AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST INTO ALABAMA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL BE MORE RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRY AND COOL WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
13-18Z. KEPT VCSH AFTER 15Z AT ALL TAF SITES THINKING THAT -SHRA
WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND SHORT IN DURATION IF DIRECTLY
AFFECTS A TAF SITE. IFR CONDITIONS AND STEADY RA...POSSIBLY RA+...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH BE NEAR
KJBR AT 00Z...KMEM AND KMKL 03-05Z...AND KTUP NEAR 06Z. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE RA AND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE VCTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER
OCCURRENCE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-11 KTS BY 15Z...THEN SHIFT TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
00-06Z. GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND COLD FRONT.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 48 64 46 53 / 0 50 90 30
MKL 45 61 43 50 / 0 40 90 20
JBR 46 60 42 50 / 0 50 90 10
TUP 44 64 50 55 / 10 30 80 70
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
