FXUS63 KDLH 060539
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1139 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NORTHLAND...THOUGH KINL
WILL BE MAINLY MVFR AS STRATUS LINGERS HERE. STRATUS CLOUDS HAVING
A DIFFICULT TIME ADVECTING SOUTH...SO STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER THEY
WILL MAKE IT INTO KBRD AND KHIB. ATTM...WENT WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS
AT KHIB AND KBRD FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009/
UPDATE...
DROPPED TEMPS CONSIDERABLY OVR NERN MN WHERE TEMPS ALREADY AT
THEIR FORECAST MINS...EVEN UNDER STRATUS AND FLURRIES. AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS HAD BEEN ADVANCING SWRD...BUT HAVE SLOWED AND IS BREAKING UP
SOMEWHAT TO FURTHER AID IN THE COOLING. FRESH SNOWCOVER ALSO
HELPING WITH THE RAPID COOL-DOWN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THRU TUE...
COL AREA CURRENTLY OVR CWA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PSUN SKIES. SHARP
UPR LVL TROF ROTATING ARND ERN CN VORTEX GENERATING A FEW -SHSN
OR FLURRIES WHEREVER THERE IS SUFFICIENT CLD CVR. BAND OF HEAVIER
SN ALG W SIDE OF BAYFIELD PEN HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVR PAST FEW HRS
AND SHUD CONT DOING SO THRU THE EARLY EVE. SOME WEAK LES WILL CONT
ALG S SHORE THRU MON NITE AS LOLVL WINDS RETAIN A NLY COMPONENT.
TUE WILL SEE A COMMENCEMENT OF THE MAIN EVENT FOR THE WEEK AS MAJ
SFC LOW EMERGES FROM THE SRN ROCKIES AND BEGINS AN EWD TREK ACRS
SRN KS/NRN OK. MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGMT THRU LATE TUE. FCST WILL
SHOW AN INCRS FROM SLGT TO HIGH CHC POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUE.
GLFMEX BEGINS TO OPEN UP ABT THAT TIME...BUT WITH A LOW TRACK ACRS
CENT MS VLY TWRD LWR MI...AXIS OF MAX SNOWFALL SHUD REMAIN S OF
OUR CWA.
TUE NITE THRU SAT...
NRN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES DOMINATES THE REGION THIS PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH MID LVL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOMEWHAT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...ANOMALOUS 85H TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE
RESULT IS A COLD WEEK WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE...OR STORM TRACK...REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF CWA
ALONG A SRN PLAINS TO CORN BELT TO ERN GT LAKES PATH. THIS SHOULD
KEEP HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS FROM CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF REGION.
STRONG AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN EC/GFS ON EVOLUTION OF MAIN SFC
LOW TUES/WED. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING EXTENT OF
SNOWFALL ACROSS SERN HALF OF CWA FROM SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH...AND QUANTIFICATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS BDRY LYR WINDS
SWING INTO MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY TUES NIGHT/WED. SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIQUID QPF AT THIS POINT SUGGESTS ABOUT
10" NEAR TWIN PORTS...CLOSER TO .25" OVER SERN CRNR OF CWA.
ALTHOUGH ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SNOW/LIQUID
RATIO...CLIMATOLOGICAL LSR OF APPROX 16:1 WOULD GIVE SEVERAL INCHES
OVER TWIN PORTS AND SOME 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER SERN PART OF
CWA. AGAIN...UNTIL TRACK IS MORE CERTAIN AND LAKE EFFECT
CONSIDERATIONS ARE MORE SPECIFIC...WILL NEED TO WAIT BEFORE NAILING
DOWN MORE SPECIFIC SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -1 20 9 19 / 10 10 10 10
INL -2 16 4 15 / 10 10 10 10
BRD 2 20 7 20 / 10 10 10 10
HYR 4 24 7 22 / 10 10 20 10
ASX 11 25 13 24 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
LONKA
