FXUS62 KCAE 090334
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1034 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. STRONG
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING RATHER GUSTY ACROSS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE 03Z...WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM LOW COUNTRY SOUTH
CAROLINA SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH COLUMBIA AREA RE-ENFORCING WEDGE...TEMPERATURES
FALLING AND CURRENTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST MINS. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN RISING TOWARD
MORNING AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND 09Z. ALSO LOWERED POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE
FLUX EXPECTED IN THE UPSTATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE DAY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE DAY...CAUSING STRONG AND GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE GONE WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. WARMER DAY ON
TAP...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70S BEFORE THE FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT MOVES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH DRYING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH SUNSET. DRY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S
FOR HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS IS QUICKER WITH RAIN
ENTERING FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN
SOMEWHAT AND HAS RAIN SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS
ECMWF...WHICH ALSO BLENDS GOOD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. RAIN
ENTERS FORECAST SATURDAY AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE GA
COAST. COOL SURFACE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE. PRECIP WOULD APPEAR TO
BE ALL LIQUID AT THIS TIME DUE TO TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. DRYING
INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE POISED
TO MOVE THROUGH BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDGE CONDITIONS FIRMLY IN CONTROL TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 01Z-04Z LOWERING VSBYS TO IFR TEMPORARILY
WHILE CIGS REMAIN IFR OR BECOME LIFR. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO LIFR AND VSBYS TO IFR DURING THE
03Z-09Z TIME FRAME WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING FROM NORTHEASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MVFR
AFTER 12Z-14Z AND THEN BECOME VFR AFTER A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA AFTER 16Z-18Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING/EFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT WITH POSSIBLE IFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-
016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
