FXUS63 KDLH 042127
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...
EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY FADE...
UPPER VORTEX STILL BRINGING VORTICES THROUGH THE REGION...CURRENTLY
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. WSR88-D SHOWS A BAND OF LES JUST OFF SHORE OF THE
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BEING AIDED BE WEST WINDS WITH 8H TEMP OF
-15 THEY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WRF SIM SHOWS
ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY OVR LS SUPERIOR FOR 36HRS.
ELSEWHERE...KEPT THE FLURRIES GOING OVERNIGHT...BUT AS DRIER AIR
AT MID LEVELS IS ADVECTING INTO THE REG ION WE'LL SEE AN END TO THE SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWER...KEPT SOME SNOW IN THE ERN REGIONS...THE
MN ARROWHEAD AND FAR NRN WI.
BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM MOS GUIDANCE AS WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT
HIGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SFC LOW HEAD OUT FROM SRN STREAM AND MOVES
INTO EARN MN...THRU CENTRAL WI. ABEST CHC OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS NRN WI...BUT CAN FINE TUNE AREA LATER.
LTTLE CHANGE FOR MONDAY...WITHMAINLY FLURRIES OVR THE ARROWHEAD AND
NRN WI...AS REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
.EXTENDED...TUE THRU FRI...
MAJ WEA FEATURE OF THE PD WILL BE DEEP SFC LOW PRESS SYSTEM LIFTING
OUT OF THE SWRN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPR LVL S/WV. STRONG
WAA/ISENT LIFT INTO WRN GRT LKS DURING EARLY STAGES. MODELS IN
RSNBLY GOOD AGMT ON A MORE OR LESS SRN KS-NRN IN-SERN MI TRACK OF
SFC LOW FROM TUE THRU WED. THIS WOULD PUT OUR CWA N OF THE MAX SN
BAND. HAVE PUT IN HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW...BUT COULD UPGRADE TO
LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME AND MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT TRACK. LES WILL HANG ON ALG THE S SHORE
THRU EARLY THU BEFORE NLY WINDS BACK TO THE W. THEN SFC HIGH PRESS
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE THU NITE AND FRI DRY FOR NOW...BUT WITH
CONTD CYC FLOW ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE IF WE WILL NEED TO
INTRODUCE AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. DAY TIME HIGHS
SHUD BE CONSISTENTLY IN THE TEENS THRU THE PD...WHICH IS A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE. HAVE OVRNGT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT THIS WILL
DEPEND ON AMT OF CLD CVR AS THE SYNOPTIC LOW PASSES TO THE S. IF WE
MAINTAIN A THICKER CLD CVR...NITE TIME LOWS WILL NOT DIP AS LOW.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 10 22 10 20 / 30 20 10 10
INL 7 16 5 17 / 40 10 10 10
BRD 8 22 10 20 / 20 10 10 10
HYR 10 24 11 24 / 30 10 10 10
ASX 12 26 16 25 / 30 10 20 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
CLC/04
