FXUS61 KRNK 272330
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
630 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
MONDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE REGION...WITH
A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE ALMOST GONE FROM THE SE WV UPSLOPE ZONE
AS THE AXIS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. LET THE
WSW FOR GREENBRIER COUNTY EXPIRE AT 6 PM. TAPERED OFF POPS IN THE
UPSLOPE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL...AND MAY EVEN DROP THEM
COMPLETELY IF CLEARING TRENDS CONTINUE AS SHOWN ON SATELLITE.
WINDS REMAIN A BIGGER CONCERN ESPCLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
A LOWERING INVERSION LEVEL AND NEXT SPIKE IN 85H WINDS WITH THE
LAST S/W THIS EVENING. STILL GETTING GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY OF NC. LATEST FCST RAOBS DO SHOW A PERIOD THRU ABOUT 6Z
WHERE ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS OCCURS AS THE GRADIENT AGAIN TIGHTENS
BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SW AND THE COASTAL LOW. THEREFORE WILL
KEEP THE GOING NPW IN PLACE THRU THE NIGHT ALTHO SPEEDS SHOULD BE
MUCH LIGHTER AFTER MIDNIGHT. STAYED A LITTLE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
MOS LOWS GIVEN MIXING AS SOME OF THE RIDGES MAY EVEN RISE LATE AS
WARMER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST.
5H ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS SAT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO
THE SOUTH AND A WARMER WESTERLY FLOW TAKING SHAPE. DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS SURGING BACK TO
NEAR 60 SOUTH AND 50-57 ELSW UNDER +8C 85H TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. PLAYED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MOSGUIDEBC
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT SIMILAR TO THE SREF/GFS
OVER THE SLOWER ECMWF. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A PUSH OF COLD
AIR INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. WITH
SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY DOWN
TO THE SURFACE IN THE NORTHWEST...WILL HOLD ONTO THE MENTION
OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE REGION.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RUN FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN
SOUTHSIDE. PLAYED LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR HPCGUIDE FROM THE LOWER 30S
IN THE WEST TO NEAR 40 IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY... A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
BE BRIEF AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVER RUNNING COLD RAIN SHOULD START
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER...THEN SPREAD TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT TO WHETHER
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...OR THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF
THE VA/NC COAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY...MEASURABLE
RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THE BASIC QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED WILL BE THE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN DURING THE EVENT. IF THE SURFACE LOW DOES
DOMINATE...BULK OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND POSSIBLY NOT IN THE AREA AND MORE TOWARDS THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THIS EVENT TO
BE ALL RAIN. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD AIR FILTERING IN...COULD PRODUCE A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES INTO
THIS EVENING B4 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN...BRINGING A DECREASING
TREND TO THE WINDS. THE MVFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB SHOULD SCATTERE OUT
BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH VFR EXPECTED THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT
ATMOSPHERE SEEMS PRETTY MIXED THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD...SO LEFT
IT OUT OF THE TAFS.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS INTO SUNDAY. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ARRIVES FROM THE WEST
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT WITH VFR LIKELY IN
THE TUE/WED TIMEFRAME.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ009>014-016>020-
022.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/WP
