FXUS64 KLZK 241737
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1137 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.AVIATION...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO
THE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BRING WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE STATE BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS THE STORM PULLS OUT. COLD AIR
WILL SWEEP IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH GUSTS NEAR
30 MPH. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS OUT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL
TODAY...AND RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT.
RAIN WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVERED THE STATE OVERNIGHT...AS
LIFT BROUGHT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO THE STATE. LITTLE ROCK
ADAMS FIELD HAD 4.60 INCHES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND BROKE THE
RECORD FOR THE YEARLY TOTAL. WITH RAIN STILL FALLING...THE RECORD
YEARLY AMOUNT WILL ONLY INCREASE.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL TODAY...AND WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. INSTABILITY IS STILL AN ISSUE...AND THINK
THAT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS. IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS...IT WILL BE A STRAIGHT LINE
WIND EVENT. FLOODING STILL REMAINS THE GREATEST CONCERN...AND HAVE
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON...ALTHOUGH IT IS TURNING INTO
MORE OF AN AREAL FLOOD EVENT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...WINDS WILL INCREASE...
AND HAVE KEPT THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR TODAY. WITH THE
STRONG GRADIENT MOVING IN...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
OF A WIND ADVISORY...AND THAT TREES AND POWER LINES MAY FALL DUE TO
THE SATURATED GROUND.
MODELS THIS MORNING HAVE SHOWED A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS...WHICH WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE BASICALLY ALONG THE
I-30 CORRIDOR AND INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TONIGHT. DUE TO THE LONGER
PERIOD OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND AS
SUCH...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH INSTEAD OF ANY
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO SEE THE NEW
MODEL RUNS THIS MORNINGS...AND MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE SNOW AMOUNTS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AREAS NORTHWEST OF A MURFREESBORO...TO
CLINTON...TO MOUNTAIN HOME LINE WILL SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY RECEIVE UP TO SIX INCHES.
FURTHER EAST...INCLUDING THE HOT SPRINGS...LITTLE ROCK...CONWAY AND
SEARCY AREAS...MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. HOWEVER...ACROSS
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL BE IN GRASSY AREAS AND
ELEVATED SURFACES...DUE TO THE WARM GROUND.
THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA DURING CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD. WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ACROSS ARKANSAS. AS THIS
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE MID SOUTH
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE ROCKIES TUESDAY BRINGING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AS THE UPPER LOW AND A SURFACE LOW ROTATE IN THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE AROUND THE LOWS AND THE MAIN ONE WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE DECREASES SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS IN DRIER AIR. DRY WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE CWFA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 54 30 37 25 / 100 60 20 10
CAMDEN AR 56 30 43 28 / 100 40 10 10
HARRISON AR 51 23 31 21 / 100 80 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 54 29 39 26 / 100 50 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 55 30 40 26 / 100 50 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 57 32 44 29 / 100 40 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 53 27 38 25 / 100 60 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 52 26 33 22 / 100 80 30 10
NEWPORT AR 55 31 38 26 / 100 60 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 56 32 42 28 / 100 40 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 53 26 36 23 / 100 70 20 10
SEARCY AR 55 31 39 26 / 100 60 20 10
STUTTGART AR 56 32 41 28 / 100 50 20 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CONWAY-GARLAND-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-VAN BUREN-
YELL.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56
