FXUS64 KLZK 060536
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1136 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009
.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY BUT SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. AFTER DARK...HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY. A FAST-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING
SOME -DZ TO KHRO AND KBPK THIS EVENING. LIGHT -DZ/-RA WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
POSSIBLE -FZDZ FOR KHRO AND KBPK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009/
UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASED FROM THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. PUT MORE CLOUDS
IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON
SUNDAY...BUT ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF GIVEN DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE. KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
IN THE WEST. (46)
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SCT
AND BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM EWD OVER AR OVERNIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HRS
AS SRLY FLOW ALLOWS FOR MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE GULF...ALONG WITH
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS UPPER SYSTEM
WILL GENERATE PRECIP SUN NIGHT...BEYOND THIS TAF PACKAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL BUT CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH FULL SUN...IT TOOK TEMPERATURES UNTIL AROUND
NOON TO CLIMB ABOVE 40 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE HIGH
WILL BE MOVING EAST TONIGHT...WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
EVENT...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL EXPECTED. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW FREEZING LAYER...WHICH WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO A SLEET/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIX. THIS WOULD MOSTLY BE
NORTH OF A WALDRON-CONWAY-NEWPORT LINE...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. DON/T
EXPECT THIS TO CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS THOUGH...AS MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE CLEARING THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING.
FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND MOVE BACK TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH SOME POSSIBLY BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CLEAR THE
AREA SOME TIME TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE AS COLD AIR INTERACTS WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE.
APPEARS THAT THESE WINTER EVENTS WILL BE BRIEF...AND THAT ANY
PROBLEMS WOULD BE LOCALIZED AND MINOR. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP A VERY
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION...AND MAKE THE APPROPRIATE CHANGES AND
UPDATES IF NECESSARY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES FOR MID WEEK...BUT THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MID DAY
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH RAINFALL AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE STATE...KEEPING
THE COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL INCONSISTENCY THEN
RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING
ANY PRECIPITATION FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 24 44 30 45 / 10 20 60 20
CAMDEN AR 27 50 38 54 / 10 30 60 20
HARRISON AR 24 43 31 42 / 10 20 40 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 26 47 34 50 / 10 30 50 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 26 46 35 48 / 10 20 60 20
MONTICELLO AR 26 48 38 50 / 10 20 80 20
MOUNT IDA AR 25 45 35 49 / 10 30 40 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 24 44 29 44 / 10 20 50 10
NEWPORT AR 25 46 33 45 / 10 10 60 20
PINE BLUFF AR 27 47 38 50 / 10 20 70 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 24 46 31 50 / 10 20 40 20
SEARCY AR 26 45 31 47 / 10 20 60 20
STUTTGART AR 27 46 37 49 / 10 20 70 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...28
