FXUS62 KMFL 051134 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
634 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2009
...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 9 AM
EST THIS MORNING, EXCEPT GLADES COUNTY...
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ENDING THE
TREAT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z TODAY. SO WILL SHOW A VCTS
THIS MORNING UNTIL 18Z...THEN VCSH UNTIL 23Z FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA TAF SITES.
THE CEILING AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
WHEN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH WHICH COULD DROP
THE CEILING AND VIS INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. AT THIS
TIME WILL NOT ISSUED A TEMPO GROUP FOR ANY OF THE TAF SITES DUE TO
THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS...BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT OVER ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF
SITES.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...COLD FRONTAL TROUGH THAT MOVED NORTH TO NEAR THE
LAKE HELPED TO PRODUCE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
THAT PRODUCED A MESO HIGH NEAR THE LAKE AND THAT PUSHED A VERY
SHALLOW OUTFLOW SOUTH TO CENTRAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDED NOT EVEN TO 1000 FEET. IN THE LAST 2 HOURS OR SO, THE
OUTFLOW DISSIPATED AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE OUTFLOW MIXED
TO THE SURFACE. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING IS
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA. SINCE THIS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IS GONE, THE HELICITIES ARE DOWN A BIT BUT STILL HIGH
ENOUGH WITH A LOW LEVEL JET TO WARRANT THE TORNADO WATCH. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT THAT IS ATTACHED TO A WEAK LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL USHER IN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR, BUT IT WON'T LAST LONG. AS THE HIGH REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY, THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST TO EAST AND THE
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE. FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
THEN SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE TEMPERATURES WITH THE NEXT FRONT
WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THIS FIRST ONE.
FOR POPS TODAY, WENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL IN THE MORNING
HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING. BY TONIGHT, ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK, POPS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW EVEN WITH THE NEXT FRONT. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF LOW CHC WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
MARINE...WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO SCEC LEVELS FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT BUT SINCE THE WINDS WILL VEER QUICKLY AND
LESSEN BY SUNDAY, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH TIME TO BRING THE SEAS UP SO
5 FEET IS THE HIGHEST EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BECOME LIGHT
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH AND INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT THEN WILL DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS HERE AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 55 75 67 / 80 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 59 77 70 / 80 10 10 20
MIAMI 82 58 77 70 / 80 10 10 20
NAPLES 74 51 74 62 / 70 - - 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ066-FLZ067-
FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075-
FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.
AM...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
AMZ650-AMZ651.
GM...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-GMZ657.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...54/BNB
