FXUS63 KFGF 291612 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1012 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER. PREVIOUS
FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD TRENDS AND
SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES...MAYBE JUST HOLD ONTO
HIGHER SKY ACROSS THE FAR EAST A BIT LONGER. 15Z RUC INDICATES
LOW-LEVEL DRYING WORKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
925-850MB WINDS ARE ACTUALLY NORTHERLY NOW...BUT BECOME MORE
WESTERLY BY MID-AFTERNOON. THUS...CLEARING MAY BE DELAYED A
BIT...BUT DO FEEL THAT CLEARING WILL OCCUR. VALLEY SHOULD BECOME
SUNNY BY MID-AFTERNOON...BUT FEAR THAT FAR EASTERN FA WILL BE
CLOUDY UNTIL AFTER THE SUN SETS. LIMITED TEMP RISE WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY...PROBABLY A DEGREE OR TWO. ACROSS
THE WEST...WESTERLY WIND AND SOLAR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE MID-UPPER 30S. 

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL NOONISH
FOR KTVF AND KBJI...AND THEN BECOME MVFR. BACK EDGE OF MVFR CIGS
ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
FROM THE NORTHWEST. KTVF VFR SOMETIME MID-AFTERNOON...AND KBJI LATE
AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KGFK AND KFAR UNTIL THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE CLEARING WORKS IN. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM NRN
ALBERTA INTO NW ONTARIO AND NE MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. MODELS
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ON
NOSE OF A 110 KT 250 MB JET INTO NRN MN MONDAY MORNING. COORD WITH
MPX AND DLH AND DID MENTION SOME FLURRIES OVER MOST OF NW MN AND
SOME LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW ROSEAU-WADENA EASTWARD. OTHERWISE
WOULD LOOK FOR SOME SUN OVER SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA AND
WARMING AT 850 MB LEVEL. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 40S DVL-FARGO SOUTHWESTWARD.

FOR TUESDAY...MODELS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A STRONGER 500 MB
SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEAST THRU SRN CANADA. TRACK IS DIFFERENT THOUGH
WITH NAM A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH SFC LOW ALONG CANADIAN BORDER
VERSUS GFS/GEM/UKMET/ECMWF WHICH HAS SFC LOW A BIT FARTHER NORTH
AND MAIN PCPN NORTH OF WINNIPEG VERSUS NAM WHICH HAS PCPN MORE
ALONG A BRANDON-WINNIPEG-KENORA LINE. ATTM BELIEVE A BIT FARTHER
NORTH SOLN IS BEST. CURRENT GRIDDS HAVE 20 POPS IN FAR NORTH
TUESDAY. LOOKS IFFY...BUT BASED ON COORD WILL LEAVE IN FOR
NOW...BUT FEEL ANY PCPN SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL BE VERY LIMITED AT
BEST. 500 MB LOW WILL DEEPEN A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO ONTARIO AND IT
DOES LOOK LIKE A NICE SHOT OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION AND WIND WILL
ENTER THE AREA TUES AFTN/EVE. UKMET AND GFS HAVE 50 KTS AT 850 MB
OVER NRN VALLEY TUES AFTN. SOUNDINGS WOULD SAY SOME OF THIS MAY
MIX DOWN AS GFS SOUNDINGS FOR GFK SHOWS A WEAK INVERSION NR 950 MB
BUT OTHERWISE A PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATE UP TO 850 MB IN THE MID
AFTN.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL WIND ADVISORY SITUATION.  

COLDER AIR AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL ENTER THE
PICTURE TUES AFTN AND SPREAD SOUTH WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR
TUES NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THRU THURSDAY WITH SOME
FLURRIES BEFORE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN AND SKIES CLEAR SOMETIME
THURSDAY AFTN OR NIGHT.  

LONG TERM...
COORD WITH BIS ON LOWS WED NIGHT AND THUR NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD TRENDS...LOW TEMPS BELOW NORMAL MAY OCCUR FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN A LONG WHILE WITH SINGLE DIGITS ESP UP IN THE DVL ZONE WHICH
WOULD STAND THE BEST CHC OF SEEING CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF ECMWF IS CORRECT WHICH HOLDS SFC RIDGE OVER
THE AREA THU NIGHT ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES.  

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
TG