FXUS64 KMOB 272206
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
406 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIRLY COLD NIGHT
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT...BUT INCREASED HIGH CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY MODERATE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM MOS GUIDANCE...AND ADJUSTED
MIN TEMPS UPWARD EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THIS SAID...LOOK FOR ONE MORE
NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
WILL MODERATE FURTHER TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE SUNDAY. NO POPS EXPECTED
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
ANY SHOWERS THAT AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. /12

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS NEWER MODEL DATA SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS. MODELS STILL
INDICATE A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
INSTABILITIES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED...SO ONLY ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE GULF JUST TO OUR SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES
ON TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE COAST...THEN SPREAD INLAND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AS MODELS STILL INDICATE A LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF AND MOVE UP TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...AND
THIS WOULD BRING THE LOW INLAND EITHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA OR IN
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY
NOT PLACE ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WOULD ONLY
EXPECT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A GOOD 
CHANCE FOR RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WITH THE LAST 
HALF OF THE WEEK CLEARING UP AND DRYING OUT. AIRMASS BEHIND THIS 
NEXT SYSTEM IS NOT AS COLD. /12

&&

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALBEIT WITH PERIODS OF THICK CIRRUS PASSING ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. /05

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTH CENTRAL 
LOUISIANA COAST WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 
DROPPING OFF TONIGHT BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
SATURDAY...THEN SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE 
FORECAST AREA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF 
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE 
MARINE AREA MONDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE 
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  GFS AND ECMWF STILL IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON 
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF 
TUESDAY MOVING TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY.  WE WILL 
LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CST FOR THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO A LONG DURATION OF MARGINALLY LOW 
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30 TO 35 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS
BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...AND SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND MOVES
NEAR THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. /12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      36  65  47  71 /  05  05  10  10 
PENSACOLA   39  63  48  72 /  05  05  10  10 
DESTIN      42  62  48  68 /  05  05  10  05 
EVERGREEN   31  64  37  70 /  05  05  10  10 
WAYNESBORO  30  65  41  70 /  05  05  10  10 
CAMDEN      31  63  43  70 /  05  05  10  10 
CRESTVIEW   30  64  33  71 /  05  05  10  05 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. 

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$