FXUS65 KVEF 271213
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
412 AM PST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY 
WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS AND SOME SOUTHERLY BREEZES 
WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD. THE LOW WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST 
AND BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR 
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE  
SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INLAND 
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF TROUGH 
ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. CLOUDS BEGINNING TO  
ENHANCE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA BETWEEN BISHOP AND 
TONOPAH. BASED ON TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
INCREASE TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD. VERY LITTLE SPREAD 
BETWEEN MODELS AS TROUGH WORKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 
TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD NEARING EXTREME NORTHWEST INYO 
COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT WILL BE OVER 
WESTERN INYO COUNTY AS LOW WORKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA. AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS SHOWERS 
ALONG THE EAST SLOPE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY. 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED 
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE TAP IS PINCHED OFF DUE TO 
THE INLAND TRAJECTORY OF TROUGH. ITS POSSIBLE A MORE ENHANCED AREA 
OF PRECIPITATION SETS UP SATURDAY NIGHT IN UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG EAST 
FACING SLOPES OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE. AT THIS TIME 
IT LOOKS AS ANY NEW SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NOT MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA. 
ANY SHOWERS LEFT ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND 
SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES AS LOW DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST 
MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND 
SUNDAY.               

.LONG TERM...RIDGING WILL BE NOSING IN OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AS 
THE WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS BY THIS POINT CENTERED 
SOUTH OF ARIZONA CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST 
AREA. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STILL EXPECTED TO BE JUST TO THE 
NORTH...A STRONG NORTH/SOUTH GRADIENT IS LIKELY...AND WILL RESULT IN 
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN AREAS THAT FAVOR THIS DIRECTION... 
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE 
TO EXTENDED TEMPERATURES AS MODELS STILL SUGGEST LIMITED MIXING OVER 
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT 
FEATURE AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY...BUT A SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST TO THE 
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL POSSIBLY INCREASE HIGH CLOUDS AND 
WINDS SLIGHTLY. MODEL GUIDANCE REALLY DIVERGES AFTER WEDNESDAY...BUT 
OVERALL CONSENSUS POINT TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE 
REGION DURING THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA 
TODAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT TO SURFACE 
CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN WE ARE ON THE 
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE. 
VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION 
TODAY...BUT THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS 
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...BUT TURN TO THE NORTH 
AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS ANY RECENT  
SYSTEM...BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAIN LY 
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO...CLARK...AND MOHAVE 
COUNTIES.
&&

.CLIMATE...SO FAR THROUGH 2 PM THURSDAY THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR 
THE NOVEMBER AT MCCARRAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN 59.8 
DEGREES. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECASTED NUMBERS THERE IS SOME 
POTENTIAL FOR LAS VEGAS TO SEE THIS NOVEMBER RANK AMONG THE 10 
WARMEST ON RECORD. THE WARMEST NOVEMBERS ON RECORD AT LAS VEGAS 
ARE...

1. 60.9 DEGREES IN 2007
2. 60.8 DEGREES IN 2008
3. 59.8 DEGREES IN 1995
4. 59.3 DEGREES IN 2005
5. 58.9 DEGREES IN 1949
6. 58.8 DEGREES IN 1999
7. 58.6 DEGREES IN 2001
8. 58.4 DEGREES IN 2006
9. 58.0 DEGREES IN 1976 AND 1981
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

PIERCE/KENNEDY

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS