FXUS61 KCAR 160220
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
920 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF MAINE AND INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE MARITIMES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING EAST OF
MAINE OVERNIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ON STRENGTHENING WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE 
INTENSIFYING LOW AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY...WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST 
AREA...ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL EXIT THE NE CORNER OF THE STATE VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY
LEAVING FALLING TEMPS AND INCREASING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY ISSUES.
HAVE LOADED BLOWING SNOW INTO GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA WHERE SNOW HAS FALLEN TODAY. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 35 MPH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE FA, DON'T EXPECT VISIBILITY TO
BE REDUCED TO THE QUARTER MILE CRITERIA FOR A BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORY. NONETHELESS, ROADS CREWS MAY KEEP BUSY CLEARING ROADS INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO DRIFTING. AS FOR A WIND ADVISORY, IT REMAINS A
THREAT WITH 40 KT WINDS MIXING DOWN IN THE COLD, UNSTABLE AIR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SO WIND GUSTS MAY REACH THE 46 MPH
CRITERIA BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE ISSUING
ANYTHING. THE FALLING TEMPS AND WINDS MAKE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES A
CONSIDERATION FOR WEDS NGT WITH WIND CHILLS LESS THAN -20 AND
WINDS EXCEEDING 10MPH. FLURRIES WILL A THREAT IN THE NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THAN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
LATER FRIDAY, A WARM OCCLUSION WILL WRAP AROUND THE STALLED
MARITIME LOW AND BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME MEASURABLE SNOW AND
WARMER TEMPS MOVING IN FROM QUEBEC.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOADED GMOS. CANADIAN MARITIME OCCLUSIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO
DOMINATE. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FEATURES ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOWS IS UNCERTAIN.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
LEVELS DOWNEAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE SOME TEMPO MVFR CEILING AND VIS REDUCTIONS IN SNSH FOR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTS DURING WEDS INTO THURS. GUSTY NW WINDS
BLOWING UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE AN AVIATION ISSUE WEDS AND THURS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FOR FRIDAY...BUT A FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE WITH SNOW AND IFR BY LATER
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT...REACHING GALE LEVELS LATE. THUS...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL TRANSITION TO A GALE WARNING ACROSS THE WATERS LATE.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THEREAFTER. 

SHORT TERM: GALE WILL CONTINUE OVER WATERS WITH LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY ON WEDNESDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES WEDS NGT INTO THURS COULD
MAKE THE FRZ SPRAY UP IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY. THE GALE SHOULD
DROP TO SCA THURS NGT OR FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
DURING THE WEEKEND WITHOUT AN SCA.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ001-002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DOODY/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MWALKER
LONG TERM...MTURNER
AVIATION...DOODY/NORCROSS
MARINE...DOODY/MWALKER/NORCROSS