FXUS64 KMRX 250732
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
232 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009
.SHORT TERM...HAVE BEEN GETTING SOME REPORTS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
IN PARTS OF THE VALLEY THAT HAD NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN ANY WIND
ADVISORY...SO ALREADY WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THOSE AREAS A LITTLE LESS THAN AN HOUR AGO...AND ALSO UPGRADED WIND
ADVISORY OVER MOST OUR SW VA COUNTIES TO A WARNING. POWERFUL LOW TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTH THIS MORNING AND WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN. RAIN OVER THE AREA WILL PULL RAPIDLY NORTH WITH
MAIN RAIN AREA EXITING NORTHERN PORTIONS THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
EXPIRATION TIME AS IS FOR WIND PRODUCTS. WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM
MAV TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
PULLING OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA...BUT A SHORT WAVE WILL SWING
AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEADING TO LOW
POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE ECMWF
PROJECTING ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM APPROACHING BY LATE WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE GFS REMAINS GENERALLY TRANQUIL THROUGH THE WEEK. GEFS
ENSEMBLES TEND TO SUPPORT THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
PRESENT TO PRECLUDE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PRECEDING
GRID/FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY DID NOT DEVIATE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MAV/MEX GUIDANCE VALUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 50 31 50 30 49 / 30 10 10 10 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 30 48 29 47 / 60 10 10 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 51 31 48 29 46 / 50 10 10 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 27 45 24 46 / 80 10 10 10 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
CHEROKEE...CLAY.
TN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...EAST
POLK...JOHNSON...MCMINN...NW BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER...
NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST GREENE...
NORTHWEST MONROE...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...UNICOI...
WASHINGTON TN...WEST POLK.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...BRADLEY...CAMPBELL...
CLAIBORNE...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...HANCOCK...
HAWKINS...JEFFERSON...KNOX...LOUDON...MARION...MEIGS...
MORGAN...RHEA...ROANE...SCOTT TN...SEQUATCHIE...SULLIVAN...
UNION.
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LEE...RUSSELL...WASHINGTON...WISE.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
SCOTT.
&&
$$
LDW/LCM
