FXUS64 KFWD 251112 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
512 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT SEEN COMING INTO
ERN CO/KS/NW MO WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO N TX BEFORE 00Z/THURS OR
THIS EVENING. GENERALLY NW FLOW 5-7 KTS WITH POSSIBLY SOME SCT
HIGH CU AND CI TNGT.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
VERY FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH PLEASANT WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY UPPER TROF MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
THE PACIFIC STATES TO LIE OVER ARIZONA...AND THEN SWINGS
SOUTHEAST. BY MONDAY MORNING TROF AXIS LIES BIG BEND TO WESTERN
IOWA. TROF PASSES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUES MOVING EAST. GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CUTTING THE TROF OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER
OKLAHOMA...BUT IT HAS HAD SOME PRETTY WILD SWINGS OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS AND I USED THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF SOLUTION.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREEING FAIRLY WELL ON FRONTAL
TIMING. FAIRLY COOL AIR WILL STREAM IN...BUT THIS IS NOT ARCTIC
AIR AND RAIN IS THE PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT
MONDAY EVENING...SO BY THE TIME IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY
WINTER PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY. THIS IS
TYPICAL OF TEXAS COLD FRONTS...SO THIS IS NOT AN EXCEPTION.
AFTER MONDAY BOTH MODELS KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN DRY WESTERLY FLOW SO
NO MORE PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 7.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 66 40 66 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 67 39 66 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 65 34 60 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 65 34 64 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 65 34 64 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 67 40 66 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 65 38 64 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 66 41 64 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 68 37 67 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/84
