FXUS66 KHNX 111801
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1001 AM PST FRI DEC 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS PRODUCING PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN AND HEAVY 
SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DIMINISHING SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA THIS MORNING...AND WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EXPIRE AT NOON TODAY. THE SYSTEM BROUGHT SOME VERY GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE VALLEY WITH FRESNO MEASURING 0.71" FROM
LAST NIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING. BAKERSFIELD RECEIVED 0.75" OF
RAIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT SETTING A NEW DAILY RAINFALL
RECORD AT KBFL FOR DEC 10. RADAR HAS BEEN TRACKING AN AREA OF
OFFSHORE CONVECTION STEADILY MOVING EAST AND NOW NEARING POINT
CONCEPTION. WILL MONITOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MAY AFFECT KERN
COUNTY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISTRICT LATER TODAY
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AMOUNTS AS IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
BRIEF. THINK WE WILL SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE FINAL AND MOST IMPRESSIVE IMPULSE ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY AFTN.
FOCUS OF PRECIP SHOULD BE FROM 00Z-12Z SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 3500 FEET NEAR YOSEMITE AND 4500 FEET IN THE
TEHACHAPI MTNS. PLANNING ON DELAYING THE START TIME OF WINTER
STORM WATCH UNTIL SATURDAY AFTN BASED ON SLOWER TIMING...THINKING
FROM 00Z-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRECIP IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING ATTM ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA WITH 
DECREASING MTN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH 21Z THIS AFTN. NORTH OF FRESNO 
EXPECT LIFR CIGS AND VSBY TO PERSIST IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY 
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON INC THE KMCE AND KMER TERMINALS. FOR FRESNO 
SOUTH VALLEY EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE LIFTING THROUGH 21Z WITH AN 
AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTH VALLEY AND ADJACENT 
TEHACHAPIS AFTER 00Z. RAIN MAY ALSO AFFECT KVIS AND KFAT SITES AFTER 
03Z OR SO THIS EVENING. MOST TAF SITES THEN EXPECT IFR CIGS AND VSBY 
10Z-18Z SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE 
SOUTHLAND THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST WITH INCREASING PCPN ACROSS THE 
SIERRA NEVADA AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING.  

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE

&&

.FROM PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM PST FRI DEC 11 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
THE NEW RUNS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FINAL SYSTEM TO AROUND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. HOWEVER IT STILL
IS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH WARNING CRITERIA POSSIBLE. THE
INTENSITY OF THE STORM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS
RUNS INDICATED. THE CONFIDENCE OF THE RUN TO RUN TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE WEEKEND STORM IS INCREDIBLY LOW.

THINGS DRY OUT AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM AND WE SEE UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION MOST OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WILL MEAN WARMING TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IT WILL MEAN
WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS FOR THE SJV FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ096-097.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR 
CAZ095>097.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DCH/JDB
AVN/FW...BROTHERTON 
SYNOPSIS...TLM

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD