FXUS64 KHGX 290457 AAA
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1100 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BEST TIME PERIOD WILL OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. ISSUING AN UPDATE TO MAKE
THE RAIN CHANCES UNIFORM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. MVFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS LIKE
KCLL/KUTS/KCXO WILL LOWER TO IFR LEVEL BY 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH
AROUND 15Z. HOUSTON AREA TERMINALS WILL SEE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR
LEVEL AROUND 08Z AND PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR LEVEL FOR KLBX/KGLS. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY 19Z EXCEPT KCLL/KUTS LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR
INTO THE AFTN. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TERMINALS 06-12Z
MONDAY. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY POST-FRONTAL HOWEVER
SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL
PLACE PROB30S IN THE TAFS FOR SUNDAY EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 8-12 KTS SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
35
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE ARE WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 67-72 DEGREE RANGE. A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS FROM
AROUND VCT-ARM- DWH-UTS LINE MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT THESE TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THEN
WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY REDEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT BUT WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA
WILL DROP SE SLOWLY REACHING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY 18Z SUNDAY
GETTING CUTOFF FOR AROUND 24 HOURS GOING NEARLY STATIONARY...THEN
AFTER TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST THE UPPER LOW
OVER MEXICO SHIFTS EAST AND ROLLS RIGHT OVER TX TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A COLD AND WET PERIOD TO
THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE COLD FRONT MARCHES SOUTH AND
THROUGH THE DFW AREA EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
CROCKETT/BRYAN AREA SUNDAY EARLY EVENING. ABUNDANT LIFT AND WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST AIRMASS EXPECTING A LARGE BLANKET OF RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED SHRA/TSRA TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH EXTENSIVE
POST-FRONTAL RAINFALL. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH TO THE COAST BY
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. CHILLY AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION WITH MOIST CONVEYOR BELT OVER-RUNNING THE COLD AIR AND AS
THE FRONT GETS OFFSHORE AND SLOWS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE
PLACE AND SHOULD REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND LIFT OVER SETX TIL THE
UPPER LOW MOVES WELL INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED TSRA OFF AND ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS NOISY SW FLOW SWEEPS IN S/W AFTER
S/W. MODELS SHOWING VARIATIONS IN HOW THE POST FRONTAL RAINS PLAY
OUT BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW SO FAR WEST AND CREEPING EAST AM VERY
CONFIDENT THAT RAINS WILL BE COMMONPLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN FINALLY THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE FA AND THE
REGION DRIES OUT AND SKIES CLEAR...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME
CHILLY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. 45
MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT...GENERALLY
IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD FROM
CURRENT 2 FOOT LEVELS...UP INTO THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE OVER TIME.
WILL BE CLOSE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS...BUT THINK JUST BELOW.
COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE COAST AND ENTER THE COASTAL
WATERS NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE
NORTHEAST. LOW THEN DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT MON NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS
EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS BECOMING
NORTH...THEN NORTHWEST. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH LOW DEEPENS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT PULLS AWAY...BUT WINDS LIKELY REMAINING ABOVE
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD. SOME
CONCERN FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS WELL...IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY TIME FRAME...DEPENDING AGAIN ON HOW INTENSE
AND HOW SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW GETS IN THAT TIME FRAME...FROM THE
NORTHEAST...THEN NORTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW.
46
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 75 49 49 41 / 20 50 90 70 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 62 77 52 56 43 / 20 30 90 80 70
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 74 62 64 48 / 20 20 70 90 70
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...35
