FXUS64 KLZK 061132
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
532 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009
.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. DURING THE
EVENING...CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR. THEN...AFTER MIDNIGHT AREAS OF
IFR IN LOW CEILINGS LGT PCPN AND BR. GREATEST UNCERTAINTIES ARE
TOWARD MORNING...WHEN THERE COULD END UP BEING SOME LIFR OVER SERN
1/2 OF AR. WILL ALERT NEXT SHIFT TO WATCH FOR THIS. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PCPN OVER SERN SECTIONS OF AR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED
IN THE PROBABILITIES INDICATED IN THE TAFS. IF TEMPS COOL ENOUGH
BEFORE PCPN MOVES OUT...PATCHY -FZDZ WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE N
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMED IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
CONTINUING OVER THE REGION. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST OF THE REGION.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS.
TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A NEW TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD...MAKING ITS WAY TO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE PERIOD.
DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE STATE THIS EVENING...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST OF
THE STATE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. A FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE STATE...AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
LEVELS. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW...AND PRECIPITATION DURING PERIOD OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT LAST LONG...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY ISSUES WITH THIS WINTER PRECIPITATION. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CLEAR THE STATE EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK TO THE
AREA.
A NEW SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND PUSH EASTWARD. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
ARKANSAS EARLY TUESDAY...AS PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE STATE. ONCE AGAIN INCLUDED A CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY TUESDAY...AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
MODEL DISCREPANCIES APPEAR BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION SEEM TO BE VASTLY DIFFERENT IN THE LONG
TERM. GFS INDICATES PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE STATE EARLY
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS...BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE
TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
FOR THE MOST PART...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 44 31 48 33 / 30 50 10 50
CAMDEN AR 49 37 55 40 / 40 60 10 50
HARRISON AR 42 29 43 31 / 30 40 10 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 45 33 52 36 / 40 50 10 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 46 34 51 37 / 30 50 10 50
MONTICELLO AR 49 37 53 42 / 40 70 10 50
MOUNT IDA AR 44 32 50 35 / 40 40 10 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 42 28 44 31 / 30 40 10 40
NEWPORT AR 45 32 48 35 / 30 60 10 50
PINE BLUFF AR 48 36 52 40 / 40 70 10 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 44 31 48 34 / 30 40 10 50
SEARCY AR 45 32 49 36 / 30 60 10 50
STUTTGART AR 47 35 51 39 / 30 60 10 50
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...28
