FXUS65 KABQ 021027
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 AM MST WED DEC 2 2009
...UNSEASONABLY COLD READINGS STATEWIDE WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS
LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST IN THE COMING DAYS...
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS INCLUDE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES. INTENSE CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
TO PULL AWAY FROM NEW MEXICO WHILE A STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WAVE IS
POSED TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES OVER
THE SE PLAINS ARE STARTING TO CLEAR AS FOG IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PLUNGING THROUGH THE ERN PLAINS...
USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER HIGHS IN THE NE PLAINS...WHILE THE
SE PLAINS WILL FAIL TO RECOVER FROM THE PREVIOUS STORM. EYES SHIFT
TO COLORADO WHERE A MODEST UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MIGRATING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER/MID LEVEL FEATURES
AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH NEW MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DIGGING
A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE MODEL DATA...IT APPEARS A DECENT BAND OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290K SURFACE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN
PLAINS. NAM12 ALSO SUGGESTS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOULD
APPROACH SATURATION...HOWEVER IT MAY BE WITHIN A RELATIVELY NARROW
ZONE AS IT TRACKS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. QPF SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...HOWEVER WITH THE NOTABLY COLDER AIR IN PLACE...ANTICIPATE A
HIGHER SNOW RATIO ACROSS THE AREA...OR DRIER-TYPE SNOWS. EVEN WITH
LIGHTER QPF...SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE TO ADVISORY LEVELS...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS INTO THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR...TAPERING OFF LINEARLY TOWARD THE TX BORDER.
WAS TEMPTED TO HOIST AN ADVISORY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...BUT WFO
BOULDER INDICATED ONLY 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW WITHIN THE DENVER METRO...
WITH MINIMAL AMOUNTS ACROSS ERN COLORADO PER REGIONAL WEBCAMS. WITH
THIS IN MIND...WILL LET THE DAY CREW EVALUATE SITUATION AND OBSERVE
SNOW TOTALS WITHIN THE PUEBLO CWA. NONETHELESS...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE
SITUATION IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. PCPN BAND SHIFTS TO THE SE QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL...ONGOING GRID PACKAGE IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE AND REQUIRED MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS. APPEARS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE ERN PLAINS...WHICH IS LIKELY A GOOD BET.
UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS A LITTLE UNUSUAL IN THE MODELS AS ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER NEW MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OR POSSIBLY CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF TUG ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE SWRN UNITED STATES AND
OFFERS HIGHER POPS FOR THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ATTM...
CAN NOT ARGUE TOO MUCH AS MODEL CONSISTENCY IS MODERATE WITH MINIMAL
SPREAD WITHIN THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS. DPORTER
&&
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PATCHES OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS PLUNGING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING AS 15 TO 30 KT N AND NE WINDS ACCOMPANY A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. BEST CHANCE FOR EARLY
MORNING LOW STRATUS WILL FAVOR KCQC TO KLVS TO KRTN...THANKS TO A
WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. KCAO AND KTCC ALSO HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE BUT LOW MODEL SFC RH PROGS PRECLUDE INCLUDING IN THE 12Z TAF.
THE FRONT ALREADY EVACUATED THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AT ROW AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THAT AREA VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. A
SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE
LATE TODAY...WITH SNOW INITIALLY FAVORING THE SANGRES AND NE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING TO THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
DIRECT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...FOG AND
STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRES DURING THE
EVENING...THEN SPREADING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PLUNGED
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN PRETTY HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SANGRES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT WILL ALSO DRIVE MORE COLD AIR SOUTHWARD
WITH A FRONTAL PUSH THAT WILL REACH SW NEW MEXICO BY LATE THURSDAY.
SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION PROBABLE BY MID DAY THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE NORTH OF I-40 THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT MAY PERSIST SOUTH OF I-40 FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE PLAINS MAY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ESPECIALLY THE SANGRES. ALTHOUGH THE WEST
WILL REMAIN DRY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY. HIGHS
IN THE EAST WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THAT
DAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING BEGINNING FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE PRETTY
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A DRIER NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ZONAL OR WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
WEEKEND SHOULD ENABLE SOME WESTERLY BREEZES AT THE SURFACE...BUT THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED WIND SPEEDS OVER PREVIOUS RUNS.
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD TREND DOWN FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE EARLY
WEEKEND WITH MODELS PREDICTING VERY LOW DEWPOINTS INFILTRATING THE
STATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. VENTILATION WILL BE MIXED AS MIXING
HEIGHTS LOOK TO BE PRETTY LOW BUT TRANSPORT WINDS COULD BE THE
OFFSET WITH HIGHER READINGS ACROSS SOME AREAS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER SUNDAY WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
PRECIPITATION MAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. WE ARE STILL
WAITING FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY TO IMPROVE BEFORE HAZARDING A GUESS AT
FAVORED LOCATIONS OR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. IT IS LIKELY THAT WIND
SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 45 17 35 8 / 0 0 5 0
DULCE........................... 41 10 32 3 / 0 0 5 5
CUBA............................ 43 13 33 2 / 0 0 10 5
GALLUP.......................... 48 12 35 0 / 0 0 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 46 11 35 0 / 0 0 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 50 12 40 1 / 0 0 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 48 14 40 3 / 0 0 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 54 27 52 18 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 37 3 27 -7 / 5 5 10 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 42 11 32 4 / 0 0 20 5
PECOS........................... 37 12 25 4 / 5 20 40 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 38 5 24 -5 / 5 10 30 20
RED RIVER....................... 28 3 16 -8 / 10 20 40 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 31 4 18 -8 / 10 20 50 20
TAOS............................ 39 9 28 0 / 0 5 30 20
ESPANOLA........................ 46 17 36 10 / 0 5 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 40 13 29 6 / 0 5 30 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 42 19 32 10 / 0 5 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 48 25 39 17 / 0 0 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 49 27 40 18 / 0 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 50 23 42 15 / 0 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 48 25 40 18 / 0 0 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 51 22 43 16 / 0 5 10 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 49 24 40 17 / 0 0 10 5
SOCORRO......................... 52 25 47 20 / 0 0 5 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 47 17 31 11 / 0 5 30 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 42 22 33 14 / 0 10 30 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 36 16 25 9 / 5 20 40 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 45 22 37 14 / 0 10 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 48 26 38 19 / 0 5 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 39 23 29 11 / 0 10 20 30
CAPULIN......................... 23 7 18 2 / 20 50 50 20
RATON........................... 31 13 23 4 / 10 50 50 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 32 12 21 4 / 10 40 50 30
CLAYTON......................... 30 12 21 10 / 5 50 50 20
ROY............................. 28 15 22 11 / 10 50 50 20
CONCHAS......................... 37 19 27 12 / 5 40 50 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 38 22 27 16 / 0 30 50 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 37 19 27 13 / 0 30 50 30
CLOVIS.......................... 37 21 27 17 / 0 20 50 40
PORTALES........................ 38 23 29 18 / 0 20 40 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 39 23 29 16 / 0 30 50 40
ROSWELL......................... 40 27 32 21 / 0 20 40 40
PICACHO......................... 42 24 33 19 / 0 20 40 50
ELK............................. 38 20 34 17 / 0 10 30 50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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