FXUS62 KILM 051429
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
928 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS WELL 
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY 
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A COASTAL TROUGH COULD 
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY. A 
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...COULD 
BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM SATURDAY...REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW MOST OF THE MODERATE 
RAIN HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. THE LAST OF THE EMBEDDED JET STREAKS IS 
MAKING A VALIANT EFFORT TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST 
GEORGIA AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT MOST OF THE OBSERVATIONS 
ARE REPORTING ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE TO THE EAST AS WELL. OVERALL...HAVE BACKED 
OFF ON THE POPS SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS AND ADDED DRIZZLE 
TO THE MIX FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS
VIRGINIA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN DRY BUT
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER. BASED ON LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS
AND SHALLOW COLD NNE FLOW...EXPECT SUN AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST EITHER
SIDE OF 50 DEGREES...WHICH COMES IN A DEGREE OR TWO UNDER THE
COOLER NAM MOS. DEVELOPING COASTAL TROF ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING
OUT...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OVER LAND BEFORE DAYBREAK
MONDAY.  

THE COASTAL TROF WILL SHARPEN UP ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO MERIT LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL ZONES. THINK THE GFS IS A BIT TOO
BULLISH IN SLINGING PRECIP INLAND AS THE ONSHORE FLOW IS QUITE
SHALLOW. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE INLAND ZONES.  

DRY WX AND SEASONABLE TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND THE COASTAL TROF BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF PHASING
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. RAMPED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE FOR BOTH TUE NIGHT AND WED...WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER IN A POTENTIAL WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY MILD
HIGHS WEDNESDAY...COULD GET CLOSE TO 70. FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL KNOCK
TEMPS BACK TO THE LOW SIDE OF CLIMO.  

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY STABLE SITUATION THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CRE AND MYR MAY OSCILLATE FROM 
MVFR TO IFR IN THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL HANG 
IN THERE FOR THE NEXT 4-5 HOURS...WITH PRECIPITATION SLOWLY ENDING 
FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS 
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY SCATTER OUT THE CEILINGS...AND THERE MAY BE A 
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AS THE MIXING BEGINS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
TONIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND MVFR MONDAY 
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN POSSIBLE. IFR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
MORNING IN RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM SATURDAY...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WINDS HAVE 
NOW SWITCHED TO NORTHWEST ACROSS ALL WATERS SANS MAYBE THE EXTREME 
NORTHEASTERN ZONE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. 
SMALL CRAFT APPEARS TO BE ON SCHEDULE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS 
WELL.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
WILL PROVIDE BENIGN N-NE WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THE COASTAL TROF BECOMES MORE OF A PLAYER...WINDS WILL
VEER TO EAST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE COASTAL TROF MAY ACTUALLY
IMPINGE ON THE WATERS FOR A PERIOD DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST PUSHES
IT BACK OUT TO SEA AS MORE OF A COLD FRONT. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
VARIABLE WINDS AS THIS HAPPENS...BUT I HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN NW
WINDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT STEADILY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. NORTH WINDS EARLY
TUESDAY WILL VEER TO EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING...AT WHICH POINT SEAS
CAN BEGIN TO BUILD. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS
TUE NIGHT...AND EVEN IN THE STABLE WARM SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY THE
50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD MIX DOWN 25 KT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. PROLONGED AND OPEN FETCH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO REALLY CRANK
UP...POSSIBLY REACHING 8-9 FT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST 
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ254-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR 
     AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...43