FXUS61 KBGM 280545
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1245 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...TO
BRING A SHORT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. A FAST MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM...
DROPPED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE WESTERN CATSKILLS
AND POCONOS. SO FAR THIS EVENING BEST GUSTS ARE COMING FROM THE
FAR EASTERN PTN OF CWA WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE FOLLOWING
CONDITIONS WOULD INDICATE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL NOT MATERIALIZE
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA, WEAK ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT, LACK OF STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A LOWERING INVERSION AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS
AND POCONOS, WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEST, WINDS GUSTS MAY REACH
CRITERIA.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE-EFFECT MECHANICS SLOWLY BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...AS LOW-LEVEL
RIDGING COMES IN FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...WILL BECOME LESS PREVALENT AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOK QUIET...AS RIDGING CRESTS OVER THE
REGION AND LAKE MOISTURE GETS CUT OFF.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A FAST MOVING SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...THEN CROSS NY/PA. FROM
THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...IT WOULDN'T APPEAR THESE SYSTEMS WILL
HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY MILD AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...POINTING TO MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE PROGRESS
FORWARD IN TIME MONDAY...COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
ELICIT A LAKE RESPONSE...AND BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED BASED ON 00Z/27 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. INITIALLY MEAN UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH W/SW POST FRONTAL FLOW WILL
PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER NRN PTN OF
CWA. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR NRN CWA BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC AND WEAK SFC LOW UPPER GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY, SFC LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE TN VALLEY
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY
SEE MIXED PRECIP WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING THEN JUST RAIN ON
THURSDAY AS SYSTEM BRINGS PLENTY OF WARM AIR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM CAA WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH
LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE OVER NRN PTN OF CWA. CYCLONIC COLD FLOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH CHC POPS FOR SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN WEAKEN AND DRIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST WITHIN COLD AND BLUSTERY NW FLOW
RISING INTO THE TERRAIN ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NORTHEAST PA
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. LOCALIZED IFR WILL BE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE
ELEVATED STATIONS OF KBGM AND KITH THROUGH ABOUT 12Z-15Z...AND MAY
OCNL DEVELOP AT KRME DUE TO -SHSNRA. SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO VFR WITH LOW AND MID LVL LAYERED CIGS.
NW WINDS WILL BE STRONG THROUGH 18Z WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS COMMON.
WINDS WILL GRDLY SUBSIDE TO GUSTS 20 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH W-NW SUSTAINED WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS AFT 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT...BECOMING VFR.
SUN...VFR.
SUN NGT TO TUE NGT...MVFR/VFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
WED...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPDATE TO THE STATS PUT OUT ON TUESDAY.
THE RECORD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF CALENDAR DAYS WITH LESS THAN
ONE INCH COULD BE TIED TODAY AND BROKEN TOMORROW FOR SYRACUSE.
THE SYRACUSE AREA HAS NOT HAD AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY
CALENDAR DAY SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH. THE WHOLE MONTH OF MARCH HAD
LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW WHICH SET A RECORD. THIS DATA WAS
ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA FROM THE SYRACUSE
AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY FOR SYRACUSE.
YEARDAYS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
1) 1946 276 DAYS FEB 28TH TO NOV 30TH
2) 2009 275 DAYSFEB 25TH TO NOV 26TH SO FAR
3) 1998274 DAYSMAR 23RD TO DEC 21ST
4) 1978265 DAYSMAR 7TH TO NOV 26TH
5) 1941263 DAYSMAR 22ND TO DEC 9TH
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ046-057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...JAB
