FXUS61 KGYX 021906
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
206 PM EST WED DEC 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT RACES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. IT WILL CROSS THROUGH INTERIOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
PASS WELL EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MORE COLD...HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THEREAFTER.
&&
.NEAR AND SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WHICH WILL QUICKLY RIDE NORTHEAST NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON RAIN HOWEVER...MAINLY TIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FOLLOWED THE STORM TRACK/INTENSITY FROM THE GFS. NICE PRESSURE
FALLS AND CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE VICINITY OF THE DEVELOPING STORM.
WINDS: STRONG SOUTHEAST GRADIENT SETS UP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY. MIXING INCREASES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS OF
45-55 KTS DOWN TO AROUND 1 KFT PER LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS. NOT ALL OF THIS
WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE...BUT ENOUGH WILL TO RAISE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTLINE STARTING BY DAYBREAK.
WITH CONTINUED INCREASE IN MIXING DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...HAVE KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
IN THE EVENT WSW GRADIENT WINDS GUST OVER 45 MPH.
QPF/HYDRO: EXPECT A QUICK 1 TO 1.5 INCHES RAINFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM. NERFC BRINGS THE PEMY TO ITS 9' FLOOD STAGE WITH ALL OTHER
RIVERS REMAINING BELOW FS. WILL NOT BE ISSUING WATCHES AT THIS
TIME...AS RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE BELOW FFG IN ALL AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THURS NIGHT AS A DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW
TAKES HOLD AND CONTINUES THRU FRI. OVER THE WEEKEND WILL NEED TO
WATCH A LOW PRES SYSTEM MODELS SAY WILL PASS WELL S AND E OF NEW
ENGLAND AND HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SCENARIO SINCE MODELS
SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY WITH TRACK. A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE CWA SAT AND SAT NGT AS A WEAK UPPER S/WV
TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...NOT FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE OFFSHORE
STORM. SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS DETEORATE TO IFR AND LIFR BY THURSDAY
MORNING. COULD BE SOME LLWS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH THE WIND
SHIFT AROUND 15Z...WHEN ALL AREAS WILL QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE WSW.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALES ARE UP THROUGH THURSDAY AND MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACH STORM FORCE THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...HAVE PUBLISHED WITH
PREFFERRED GFS SWAN GRIDS WHICH PICKS UP ON THE BUILDING WAVES
MUCH BETTER THAN THE WAVEWATCH MODEL.
LONG TERM...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THURS NIGHT WILL BE STG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SCA CRIT AND THEN WILL DIMINISH FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AN OCEAN STM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS WELL S AND E OF NEW ENGLAND LATE SAT ALLOWING WINDS TO
APPROACH SCA CRIT SAT NIGHT BUT DIMINISH AGAIN ON SUN.
&&
.COASTAL FLOODING...HIGHEST ASTRO TIDES OF THE MONTH WILL OCCUR
ARND 11 AM THU MRNG DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A FULL MOON. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WATER LEVEL CONTRIBUTION DUE TO LOW ATMOS
PRESSURE WILL OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A STORM SURGE OF 1-1.5 FEET. WILL ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS
FOR THE REGION FROM PORTLAND SOUTH. WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FURTHER UP THE COAST...WHICH NEEDS A HIGHER 12.5' TIDE IN PORTLAND
HARBOR BEFORE THE ONSET OF FLOODING.
BIG QUESTION REMAINS THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SW ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE HIGH TIDE - WHICH WILL
BE BENEFICIAL AS COMPARED TO STRONG SE WINDS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MEZ025>028.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 AM TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
MEZ023-024.
NH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 AM TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
JC/RAM
