FXUS61 KCLE 260234
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
934 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO FRIDAY AND WEAKEN AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL AREA OF OHIO...AND TO CHANGE THE WORDING IN THE
EAST FROM CHANCE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. AN FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. RADAR ALSO SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND JUST CHANGED
WORDING IN THE ZONES AND GRAPHICS FROM CHANCE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER WILL TRY TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY COOLS THE BOUNDARY ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A DRY SLOT MAY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY AND PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUN
BUT FOR THE MOST PART A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED.
AS COOLING PROGRESSES THURSDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
OVER THE MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS INLAND BUT REMAIN LIQUID ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH STILL WARM WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F.
THE 12Z MODELS AND SREF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE FEATURES AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY IN NW PA. A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE INLAND HIGHER LOCATIONS OF THE NW PA BY
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM GROUND MAY
LIMIT ACCUMULATION. FAIR WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE RANGING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEAR CHICAGO. ALL
MODELS SHOWING THIS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HAD CHC POPS IN
GRIDS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING SIMILAR POPS.
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ECMWF AND GFS QUITE DIFFERENT IN
SOLUTIONS. GFS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI IN RESPONSE TO STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE ECMWF
KEEPS SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING INTO THE AREA. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THESE DIFFERENCES
RESULT IN GFS BRINGING STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION WHILE ECMWF TAKES DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. FOR NOW DIDN/T LEAN IN ANY PARTICULAR DIRECTION GIVEN SUCH
DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. CONTINUED WITH LOW CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN NOW
INTO ERN INDIANA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CIG. WILL GET A BREAK TOWARD MID
MORNING. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY KICK OFF SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 6C BY 12Z FRIDAY.
.OUTLOOK...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD VFR RETURNS SAT INTO
SUN THEN AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WEST LATER SUN AND ANYWHERE SUN
NIGHT AND MON.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH
OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHWEST AND THEN BACK TO WEST FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS IS WHEN GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONGEST. STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES DURING
THIS TIME OVER THE LAKE BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR HEADLINES...THINKING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY CAN SEE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT THEN.
SMALL CRAFT POSSIBLY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STILL
POSSIBILITY OF GALE WARNING BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
SATURDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...REL
NEAR TERM...REL/RANDEL
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY
