FXUS64 KBMX 240346
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
940 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

.UPDATE...FOR ZONE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS HAVE THINNED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS WITH
MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL WELL TO OUR WEST.  WENT AHEAD AND CHANGED
THE TIMING OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY.  IN
ADDITION...WENT WITH MORE OF AN INCREASING CLOUD TREND.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO CURRENT TEMPS AND ADJUSTED THE OVERNIGHT LOW
FORECAST AND HOURLY GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT RAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF FROM MOST
SITES AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD APPROACH TCL AIRPORT. THERE ARE A LOT OF ECHOS SHOWING
UP RIGHT NOW ON THE RADAR ACROSS WEST ALABAMA AND EAST
MISSISSIPPI...BUT MOST IF NOT ALL ARE PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS
EARLY 14Z. EXPECT FOR COVERAGE TO INCREASE AND FOR THE RAIN TO
BECOME HEAVIER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE DETAIL WILL BE ADDED ON
THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE AT 06Z.

WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS BEGIN TO MOVE IN AT AROUND 06Z. THIS
IS JUST BASED OF THE CURRENT MODEL DATA. NOT REAL CONFIDENCE YET ON
THIS TIMING...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS TONIGHT AND WILL ADJUST AS
NEEDED.

WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY. REMAIN CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THIS COULD BE IN THE LOW END OF
THE SPECTRUM AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE A TAD HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

10/ARM

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM 6 AM THURSDAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

$$
KSL