FXUS64 KMAF 042119
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
319 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT A ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TONIGHT...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES HAS
ALREADY INDUCED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THESE PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...AND THIS COULD KEEP SURFACE WINDS FROM GOING CALM
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES...BUT GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...EXPECTED CLEARING
OF SKIES AND RESIDUAL SNOW COVER...PREFER TO GO NEAR OR BELOW THE
MET MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS
TRANSLATES INTO WIDESPREAD TEENS AND TWENTIES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
ANY MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL CERTAINLY FREEZE OVERNIGHT AND TRAVEL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND ELEVATED
ROADWAYS...MAY BE IMPACTED.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING WARMING...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES. THE
COLD AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD BE ERODED BY SATURDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS COLD FRONT. WE DO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE
INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
ADJUST EVEN LOWER PENDING LATER MODEL DATA. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS
THE ARCTIC AIR WILL NOT HANG AROUND LONG AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WITH THIS TROUGH
APPEAR VERY STOUT...WITH WIDESPREAD 60KT TO LOCAL 80KT OVER THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. WE HAVE INCREASED WINDS FOR ALL AREAS AND IF
LATER MODEL DATA REMAINS CONSISTENT...HIGH WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY...WE EXPECT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WE
PREFER THE ECMWF IN HANDLING THIS FRONT AS THE GFS APPEARS TOO
WEAK. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...BUT THE
LATEST MEX GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO WARM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 24 48 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 19 46 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 23 49 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 23 55 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 22 42 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 19 45 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 11 51 22 60 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 21 47 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 22 47 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 22 49 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12/06
