FXUS62 KILM 061633
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1133 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WILL
HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE WEDNESDAY.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1133 AM SUNDAY...ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER MADE THIS MORNING
DUE TO STRATO-CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN FORECAST ZONES.
THIS EFFECTIVELY CHANGES MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
WORDING OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT A FEW TWEAKS
TO THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NOON UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. COASTAL TROF WILL SHARPEN ON MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. ONSHORE FLOW IS VERY SHALLOW WITH
RESPECTABLE SW FLOW ABOVE IT...SO THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME BRINGING MUCH PRECIP ONSHORE BEFORE IT IS CARRIED OFF TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST MONDAY EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE COAST FOR MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING FOR COASTAL NC COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM REARS ITS HEAD TUE AFTERNOON.
GULF MOISTURE FEED STARTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE...AND WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SPREAD LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ILM CWA. HOWEVER AM INCLINED TO
THINK THAT EVEN THESE SMALL POPS ARE A BIT ON THE GENEROUS
SIDE...WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE WARM
FRONT TUE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...PRECIP IS A PRETTY GOOD BET ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY POPS ARE STARTING TO LOOK A BIT IFFY NOW AS IT APPEARS A
DRY SLOT WILL COME INTO PLAY IN THE WARM SECTOR. WILL KEEP HIGH
CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY POPS...AND CARRY THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DYNAMIC ENOUGH THAT ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY
WILL BE NECESSARY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS A POTENTIAL BUST AS IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW CLEANLY THE COLD FRONT GETS THROUGH. COULD HANG UP
CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BETWEEN A
BREEZY NIGHT AND COLD ADVECTION THAT HANGS BACK... EXPECT THE
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THU.
MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPS ON THURSDAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW.
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...BUT IT IS PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH THAT SATURDAY COULD SEE YET ANOTHER COASTAL TROF.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE
ONE HOUR OF AN MVFR CEILING FOR MYR...BUT SATELLITE SHOWS THE SMALL
SLIVER OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH THIS
MORNING WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK WEDGE BEGINS
TO SET UP TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND 4K FEET BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS MONDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. MORE IFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SUNDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING OUT INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. A COASTAL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THE TROUGH BEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES LATE.
BUOYS AT 930 AM ARE SHOWING SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 6 FT AND
WINDS HAVE FALLEN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS WITHIN 20 MILES OF
SHORE...WITH STILL A FEW LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS HANGING ON. GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND MIDDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT NORTH OR NORTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY ON MONDAY IS A
COASTAL TROF...WHICH WILL EDGE VERY CLOSE TO SHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF EAST OR SOUTHEAST...OR EVEN
VARIABLE WINDS IN THE NC WATERS THAT WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE TROF.
NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS REINFORCED MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM THE NW AND PUSHES THE COASTAL TROF OUT OF THE
PICTURE. WILL SEE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NE AROUND 15 KT HEADING
INTO TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT VEERING LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE WARM FRONT TAKES SHAPE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. SEAS GENERALLY
2-3 FT THRU THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT AND
WED AS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE CAROLINAS. INCREASING
EAST WINDS TUESDAY EVENING WILL VEER TO SW OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO
50-55 KT WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET SOLID SCA WINDS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORY WILL PROVIDE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND LONG
FETCH...ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT BY WED AFTERNOON OVER ALL
BUT THE NEARSHORE WATERS...AND UP TO 10 FT FARTHER OUT ALONG
FRYING PAN SHOALS.
LOW-LEVEL JET IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT WITH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND THE HIGH STILL DIVING FOR THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY FRISKY OUT OF
THE WEST. THUS SEAS WILL NOT SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS...BUT 2-4 FT
ELSEWHERE BY THAT POINT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA/MJC
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...43
