FXUS61 KCAR 260800
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
300 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TRACK NEAR
THE COAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING ON SUNDAY. 
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DECK
OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS SHROUDS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND IS 
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERSISTENT DECK OF LOW STRATUS. HOWEVER...
SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OR BLUE SKY CAN'T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW 
SURFACE TEMPS TO REACH MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND 50 DOWNEAST...
BUT COULD BE WARMER IF MORE SUNSHINE THAN EXPECTED OCCURS.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
TONIGHT AS THE MIDWEST TROUGH SWINGS EAST. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY
AND MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT SPREADING RAIN AND SOME FOG ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. 
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN NORTH MOST OF DAY BLO 40F 
BUT CRITICAL THICKNESSES ARE FAR TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP.
AS LOW MOVES NORTHWARD INTO MAINE, EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN MAINE AND ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH NEAR 50F. AT THIS
POINT, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE BOTH TO THE WEST
AND EAST OF MAINE, BUT A FAIRLY STEADY RAIN SEEMS PROBABLE MUCH OF
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH MID-RANGE AMOUNTS APPROACHING A
HALF INCH. AS COLD AIR ALOFT STARTS TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE CONCERN SHIFTS TO SNOW AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1000FT IN THE SPARSELY POPULATED MTS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FA. GNR WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TOWN TO RECEIVE ANY SNOW FRI NGT.
THE 26/00Z NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF COLD AIR ALOFT
AND SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY WITH OTHER
MODELS WARMER ALOFT. HAVE LEANED MORE TO THESE OTHER MODELS SUCH
AS GFS. THE COLD AIR SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD DURING SAT WITH
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE BY LATE DAY. A
DUSTING TO AN INCH IS WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES DEPENDING
ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT EASTWARD. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN
IS STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTH AND NEAR THE COAST. TEMPS WILL BE STEADY TO FALLING DURING
SAT IN THE FA. 
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NW WINDS ARE THE MAIN STORY INTO SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A BRISK DAY
WITH TEMPS NOT TOO FAR ABOVE FRZ IN NORTH AND CLOSER TO 40F NEAR
THE COAST. STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH, BUT WEST WINDS SHOULD
BREAK IN UP FOR BGR AND BHB AREAS. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE RACES TOWARDS MAINE FOR
LATER MONDAY INTO TUES NGT...BRINGING THE THREAT OF THE SEASON'S
FIRST BIG SNOW IN THE FA. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE, RECENT MODEL
OUTPUT RUNS THE GAMUT FROM A ST LAWRENCE TRACK (ALL RAIN) TO AN
OFFSHORE TRACK (SNOW ONLY IN COASTAL AREAS). HOWEVER, THE CURRENT
GFS AND ECMWF LOOK REASONABLE WITH A TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. THIS
MEANS THE BEST CHC OF SNOW IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE BUT RAIN
ALONG THE COAST UP TO BGR. HAVE PLAYED THIS SCENARIO IN GRIDS FOR
NOW. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK, THE SEASON'S COLDEST AIR FOLLOWS AND
THE FA RETURNS TO DECEMBER-LIKE TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. 
&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. 

SHORT TERM: IFR ACROSS STATE DURING FRIDAY WITH SOME LOW LVL SHEAR
POSSIBLE. IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY IN NORTH WITH SOME MVFR
LATER IN DAY SOUTH. STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE AN AVIATION
HAZARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR SOUTH AND MVFR
NORTH. MONDAY WILL START VFR BUT DETERIORATE TO VLIFR BY LATE DAY
IN SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT A GALE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY WITH
AN SCA LIKELY CONTINUING UNTIL MONDAY. 

LONG TERM: ANOTHER GALE OR STRONG SCA SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP MON
NGT OR TUES AND CONTINUE INTO WEDS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...MWALKER
LONG TERM...MWALKER
AVIATION...BLOOMER
MARINE...BLOOMER/MWALKER