FXUS64 KHGX 271549
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
949 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THANKSGIVING LEFTOVERS ON TAP FOR THE WEATHER TODAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH CIRRUS OVERHEAD. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK AND NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS MORNING. 38
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND WON'T MAKE MANY CHANGES. WILL
CUT-AND-PASTE MUCH OF THE DAYSHIFT FCSTER'S DISCUSSION AS I
COULDN'T SAY IT MUCH BETTER. CIRRUS SPREADING OUT OVER TX AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX AS UPPER CIRC OVER NRN
MEXICO MOVES EAST AND ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MIGHT SEE SOME RETURNS ON RADAR AS THIS OCCURS BUT DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER SHOULD LIMIT THIS TO VIRGA. LL FLOW BECOMING ONSHORE AND AREA
MOISTENS UP THIS WEEKEND. MAY SEE SOME WAA ADVECTION SHRA DEVELOP
EARLY SUN AND BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA AS MOISTURE BEGINS POOLING AHEAD OF SWD
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REACHES THE COAST MONDAY AROUND SUNRISE. WIDESPREAD
RA/SHRA SHOULD DEVELOP AND PERSIST POST FROPA AS MOIST SW FLOW
OVERRUNS THE BOUNDARY. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AN AVG 1" ACCUMULATION
WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A BRIEF BREAK TO THE RAINS
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND GETS CLOSER TO
SE TX. THIS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL BRING BACK HIGH POPS WITH
MORE RAIN AND POSSIBLY TSRA LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. TEMPS WERE
NUDGED DOWN AGAIN BOTH MON & TUE AS A COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...RAIN
AND CAA SHOULD LIMIT HEATING. AREA SHOULD DRY OUT BEGINNING WED AS
TROF PUSHES TO THE EAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL NOT IN THE BEST
AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. ECMWF/ECMWF INDICATING A BROAD TROF
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...POSSIBLY SPILLING
SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES DON'T SHOW
QUITE AS AMPLIFIED OF A PATTERN. TIME WILL TELL. 47
MARINE...
NOT TOO MANY ISSUES FOR TODAY AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT DESPITE
THE CHANGE IN DIRECTION TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST SAT EVENING
AND PROGGED TO INCREASE JUST A TAD ON SUN WITH THE APPROACH/PASS-
AGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/TROF FROM THE WEST. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS MON WITH ADVISORIES LIKELY AREAWIDE BY MON EVENING. 41
AVIATION...
DESPITE THE INTRUSION OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE PATTERN UNTIL
PERHAPS SUN MORNING WITH THE INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 49 72 60 74 / 10 10 10 10 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 50 72 61 77 / 10 10 10 10 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 58 70 65 76 / 10 10 10 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...38
