FXUS62 KMLB 060819
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
319 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTHERLY WINDS VEER/SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING THEN TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
DRY AIR MASS...DEW POINTS IN THE 40S...STARTS TO MODIFY AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO AN ONSHORE DIRECTION. ONSHORE FLOW ALSO WILL HELP
TO PUSH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S. LIGHTER WINDS AND
SUN WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY THAN SATURDAY. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THAT HAD STALLED SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND
BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE TODAY AND ALONG THE COAST
CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH TONIGHT.
MON-TUES...SFC HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS QUICKLY MOVES EAST INTO THE
ATLC BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW VEERING SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH INTO TUESDAY. FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...PROMOTING INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH A FOGGY START. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE SEASONAL WITH
HIGHS INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE NORTH/UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THE AREA WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THOUGH THE
ACTUAL WARM FRONT AND LOW ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST
AND NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK INTO THE 80S ON
TUESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY LOW 70S OVER THE
FAR SOUTH. MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
WED-SAT...DOUBLED BARRELED LOW CONTINUES TO RACE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND A SECONDARY LOW FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PHASED ACROSS THE MID CONTINENT
AT THIS TIME...AS 500 MB FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY ZONAL ACROSS THE
COUNTRY.
WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW WELL OFFSHORE THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURS
MORNING...AND LITTLE UPPER DYNAMICS...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL LIMP ACROSS THE PENINSULA WED AFTN INTO THURS NIGHT.
FRONT APPEARS TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR FRIDAY TO BE A MOSTLY
DRY DAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ANY BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE PATTERN MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS
SPLIT FLOW WITH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STORM
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BEING TO FORM INTO SATURDAY...PUTTING THE FL
PENINSULA BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES CAN BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE DUE TO TIMING ISSUES IN FAST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
TEMPO MVFR BKN030 ALONG THE COAST AS NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS BRING
MARINE STRATOCU ASHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHIFT TO THE
EAST BY THE EVENING. HAVE HEADLINED SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES AS COOLER...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
PASSING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GULF STREAM WILL PUSH WINDS
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
MON-THU...WINDS WILL VEER FROM NE-SE MON INTO TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST TUE NGT AND THEN SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AS CTRL FL WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...COULD SEE AN
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS LOW TRACKS NE. COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING GUSTY NW-NE WINDS THURS AFTERNOON-NIGHT.
SEAS 2-4FT NEARSHORE/3-5FT OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 66 59 72 60 / 10 10 20 10
MCO 69 59 75 60 / 10 10 20 10
MLB 72 64 76 62 / 10 20 20 10
VRB 74 64 78 61 / 10 20 20 10
LEE 66 55 72 59 / 0 10 20 10
SFB 69 58 74 60 / 10 10 20 10
ORL 68 58 74 61 / 10 10 20 10
FPR 73 63 78 62 / 10 20 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM....MOSES
