FXUS63 KSGF 072333
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
534 PM CST MON DEC 7 2009

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING WITH OUR NEXT
STORM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM
ONCE IT MOVES OUT.

CURRENTLY...AREA UNDER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA REMAIN IN THE MID 30S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER
WEST...OUR STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY HAS JUST ABOUT ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND IS SHOWING SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT OVER
THE PAST FEW IMAGES.

FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP AS SURFACE LOW OVER THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BEGINS TO DEEPEN. WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
COMMENCE ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASE FROM -1C THIS MORNING...UP TO AROUND +4C TOMORROW
MORNING. WILL PROBABLY SEE OUR LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY MORNING AND ASSOCIATED BROAD SCALE
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BEGIN TO KICK OFF SOME RAIN
TUESDAY MORNING. COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING RAIN IN
LOCATIONS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...DO NOT BELIEVE FREEZING RAIN
TO BE WIDESPREAD AS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.

SURFACE LOW ENTERS THE CWA NEAR JOPLIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR...SO ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE SGF CWA WILL
PROBABLY GET DRY SLOTTED FOR THE MOST PART AS CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH LOOKS TO CUT OFF MOST GULF MOISTURE RETURN AND DEFORMATION
ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW STAYS NORTH OF THE CWA. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO NEAR SAINT LOUIS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO -14C
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND
MIDNIGHT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID 20S.

ONE OTHER HAZARD FOR TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY IS THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WE WILL SEE WITH THE SURFACE LOW. WIND SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THESE FALLING TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL APPROACH ZERO
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WIND SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIE OFF
WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST MODELS SHOWING
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WITH WINDS WEAKENING.
MORNING LOWS THURSDAY COULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

NEXT CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY AS GULF MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHERN TEXAS.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.AVIATION...

PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS WILL 
NEED TO MONITOR FOR DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL CAUSE 
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY 
MORNING.  CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IMPACTED...EVENTUALLY 
FALLING TO WITHIN THE IFR CATEGORY.  IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY 
PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  

OTHERWISE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF 
TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING EAST NORTHEAST WINDS.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$