FXUS66 KHNX 261711
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
911 AM PST THU NOV 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE TO 
BE A CONCERN FOR THE VALLEY. A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND 
SATURDAY. POSSIBLE MONO WIND CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY 
OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND FOOTHILLS NORTH OF KINGS CANYON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS SHIFTING EASTWARD
TODAY. THE WEAK UPPER LOW NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE MAIN PACIFIC STREAM
REMAINS TO THE NORTH. OVERALL IT WILL BE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY OVER
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR WITH SOME ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE BAY AREA ON FRIDAY...THEN INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE NAM KEEPS THE LOW
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE IT MORE INLAND
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL
GET SOME PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM...THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A MAJOR STORM AT THIS TIME BUT RATHER A LOW QPF EVENT WITH A SHOT
OF MUCH COOLER AIR. THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS COULD GET A LITTLE
SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES AND SNOW LEVELS FALL TO AROUND 4500 FEET. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS SCENARIO FOR TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES FOR THOSE TRAVELERS
HEADING HOME A DAY EARLY. 

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING
LOOK MINIMAL...BUT WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT (-25C AT 500 MB) WILL
LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM...FORECAST MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
PROJECTING THE INGREDIENTS FOR A MONO WIND EVENT SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE SIERRA. A HIGH WIND WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONO WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD FOR THE
SIERRA NEVADA AND FOOTHILLS.

A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS MUCH
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS RATHER COLD
HOWEVER FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...FORECAST MODELS REALLY AMPLIFY THE
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE AMPLIFICATION IS SO PRONOUNCED
THAT AN "UNDER CUTTING" PACIFIC SYSTEM JUST MAY SNEAK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS BRING IN A PACIFIC SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. HAPPY
THANKSGIVING FROM THE NWS HANFORD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO HAZE WILL OCCUR IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY 
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR/LIFR IN FOG FROM 08Z-16Z 
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY NOVEMBER 26 2009... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.  FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING IS
PROHIBITED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA AND TULARE
COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR 
CAZ093-096.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...DCH

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD