FXUS63 KICT 041801
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1201 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND REMAIN LIGHT. SOME CIRRUS MAY SPREAD TO THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
COX
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD CANADIAN
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO TEXAS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AFTER 00Z/SAT AS WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTH. THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WILL KEEP THE CLEAR SKIES AROUND INTO THE AM
HOURS ON SAT.
KETCHAM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BOTH SUNDAY AND
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
TODAY-SUNDAY:
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY TODAY...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR ANOTHER DAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
COME THROUGH ON SUNDAY...AND WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS SHOULD BE ALL SNOW...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL NOT
HAVE THE SATURATION ALOFT TO SUPPORT SNOW. THEREFORE DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST LIKELY FOR THOSE AREAS. SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS PERIOD...BUT APPEAR
TO BE COMING TO MORE OF A CONSENSUS AT LEAST. WITH THE 04/00Z MODEL
RUNS...THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE THE STRONG SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS ON TUESDAY WITH VERY SIMILAR TRACKS. THE DIFFERENCE LIES IN
THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS ACTUALLY SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. WITH THIS
TRACK...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS SNOW
EVERYWHERE AS THE COLD AIR WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE...AND REMAIN AS
SNOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAY
SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM UP AS THE GFS SUGGESTS. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AS ALL SNOW FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THIS AS
THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER.
THIS WILL BE A VERY STRONG SYSTEM...WITH STRONG WINDS...ACCUMULATING
SNOW...AND OF COURSE BLOWING SNOW. AT THIS POINT...THE COBB SNOWFALL
TOTALS GIVE A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
BELIEVE THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...AND WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR A SMALL PART OF THE
AREA. STAY TUNED.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE
STORY DURING THIS PERIOD...AND LIKELY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS STORM WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED IF WE
DO GET ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND THEN HAVE CLEAR SKIES.
SCHRECK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 36 20 44 26 / 0 0 10 10
HUTCHINSON 35 18 42 24 / 0 0 10 10
NEWTON 35 20 41 24 / 0 0 10 10
ELDORADO 35 20 41 24 / 0 0 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 37 20 45 28 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELL 36 14 43 18 / 0 0 10 10
GREAT BEND 36 14 40 18 / 0 0 10 10
SALINA 36 19 42 23 / 0 0 10 10
MCPHERSON 35 19 43 24 / 0 0 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 37 22 45 28 / 0 0 10 10
CHANUTE 36 19 44 25 / 0 0 10 10
IOLA 36 19 42 25 / 0 0 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 37 19 44 28 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
