FXUS66 KPQR 222214
AFDPQR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
213 PM PST TUE DEC 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 
CHRISTMAS AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST. 
BRISK EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE 
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT KEEPING US DRY 
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE WEDNESDAY- 
FRIDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY EAST WINDS NEAR 
THE GORGE AND VALLEY FOG AWAY FROM THE GORGE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG 
WILL LIKELY BECOME QUITE PERSISTENT IN THE SOUTH VALLEY BY FRIDAY 
WITH VERY LITTLE AFTERNOON CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA 
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE 
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND AND THE ARRIVAL OF ANY 
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS...AS SHOWN BY INCREASING ENSEMBLE SPREADS. EXPECT 
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP SOMETIME LATE SAT/EARLY SUN THROUGH EARLY 
NEXT WEEK...WITH A STRONG SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION BY MID NEXT 
WEEK. HAVE KEPT POPS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY GIVEN THE CONTINUED 
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. RAMIREZ

&&

.AVIATION...FLOW NOW TURNING MORE NORTHERLY. CLOUDS REFORMED IN THE 
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR.  
HOWEVER...AS AIR MASS STABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WILL 
SEE LARGE AREAS OF CLEARING. BUT THAT CLEARING WILL INCREASE THE 
THREAT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG 
FORMING OVER INLAND AREAS AFTER 08Z...AND PERSISTING WELL INTO WED 
AM. 

KPDX AND APPROACHES...BROKEN MVFR CIGS...AROUND 3000 FT...UNTIL 
01Z...THEN GRADUAL CLEARING. WILL SEE FOG OR IFR STRATUS FORMING 
AROUND KPDX OPS AREA BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z TONIGHT. SUSPECT WILL WIND 
UP WITH MORE LOW STRATUS AT KPDX THAN FOG...AND WILL TREND 00Z TAF 
IN THAT DIRECTION.
&&

.MARINE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WILL SLOW SHIFT 
INLAND OVER PAC NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BRING LIGHTER 
OFFSHORE WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND WED. SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT AT THE 
MOMENT...BUT THESE TOO ARE ON THE DECREASE. SHOULD FALL BELOW 10 FT 
LATER TONIGHT. NO MAJOR WEATHER EXPECTED FROM WED THROUGH EARLY SAT 
AS HIGH PRES OVER PAC NW KEEPS LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUING.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM PST TONIGHT
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR FROM
     10 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 10 PM 
     PST THIS EVENING.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.