FXUS64 KCRP 291158
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
558 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW PERSISTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MID TO HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE STATE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND ALONG A LINE
FROM COTULLA TO VICTORIA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DUE TO CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE KALI
TERMINAL BY 08Z AND KCRP TERMINAL BY 10Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
SHORT TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BY 10-15 DEGREES. TRENDED CLOSER TO NAM MOS FOR
MAX TEMPS TODAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
COASTAL BEND AS WELL DUE TO MIXING OF THE 25-30KT LOW LEVEL JET.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE
EVENING REACHING THE COAST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT 30
DEGREES COLDER ON MONDAY WHEN COMPARED WITH TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER WEAK INSTABILITY AND LITTLE
SHEAR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTN AS STRONGER DYNAMICS MOVE IN IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL
POPS AREA WIDE FOR MONDAY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED A SATURDATED
PROFILE WITH PWATS OF 1.5-1.75" AND STRONG VERTICAL LIFT. HPC'S
QPF FCST LOOKED REASONABLE WHICH SHOWED 1.25-1.50 TOTAL PRECIP FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE FRONT HANGS UP OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS MONDAY AFTN AND GFS/NAM BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG NE WIND FLOW DEVELOPING. IF 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPING MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY BEGINNING LATE MONDAY.
LONG TERM... (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...OVERALL CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS RAIN FORECAST WILL BE MINOR...SINCE TIMING OF THINGS STILL
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT. UPPER LOW STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS TEXAS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST LIFT FOR CWFA OCCURRING ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...THEN LOWERING CHANCES FARTHER WEST. AM
CONCERNED THAT MAIN ENERGY OF UPPER LOW MAY NOT COME UNTIL TUESDAY
WITH LITTLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT (GUIDANCE MAY BE KEYING ON HIGH MEAN RH
FIELDS RATHER THAN LIFTING MECHANISMS). FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN POPS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL REMOVE THUNDER AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT AND
MID LEVEL COOLING DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL TUESDAY. INCREASED POPS A BIT
MORE MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH POPS DECREASING FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND RAPIDLY FOR THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.
DRIER AIR COMES IN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
BEHIND UPPER LOW CONTINUES. GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOWING UPPER TROUGH
TO MOVE ACROSS AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. MOISTURE
NOW LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR RAIN...PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES AT BEST BUT
DEFINITELY CLOUDS AND NOT MEASURABLE RAIN (AS LONG AS MOISTURE
FIELDS HOLD)...SINCE A RE-ENFORCING SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AND KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE OUT. PRETTY MUCH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
AFTER FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN UPPER
FLOW PATTERN COULD COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND TO CAUSE SOME ISOLATED RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF GFS IS
RIGHT AND BRINGS A FRONT DOWN (ECMWF NOT SHOWING THIS). AT THIS
TIME...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AS ANY UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAK THAT FAR
OUT AND FROPA REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL MAINTAIN
LOWER THAN GUIDANCE VALUES THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST (ESPECIALLY
FOR MIN TEMPERATURES)...ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO MOS NUMBERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 58 59 48 53 / 10 70 90 70 80
VICTORIA 79 52 54 43 50 / 10 80 80 70 80
LAREDO 87 54 56 45 52 / 10 70 80 50 60
ALICE 85 55 56 46 53 / 10 70 90 70 80
ROCKPORT 78 60 61 48 55 / 10 70 90 70 80
COTULLA 82 52 54 42 51 / 10 70 80 50 50
KINGSVILLE 83 58 59 49 55 / 10 70 90 70 80
NAVY CORPUS 79 61 61 51 56 / 10 70 90 70 80
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
JM/75...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM
