FXUS64 KOUN 280446
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.AVIATION...
00Z NAM A LITTLE SLOWER WITH FROPA. WE WILL BRING WIND SHIFT INTO
KGAG/KWWR AROUND 00Z AND FROM JUST W OF KPNC TO NEAR KHBR BY 06Z.
NEW WRINKLE IS N-WARD SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO CENTRAL OK
AHEAD OF FRONT SAT EVENING. NAM GUIDANCE DROPS CIG/VSBY DOWN TO
THE DECK IN CENTRAL OK JUST AFTER 06Z DESPITE 4-5 DEG DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS. WE WILL TREND TOWARD ARRIVAL OF AT LEAST SCT LOW
CLOUDS AOB 3K PRIOR TO 06Z. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO AT
LEAST MVFR SHORTLY THEREAFTER WHEN FRONT ARRIVES AND COOLER AIR
HITS HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/
UPDATE...
WITH RH IMPROVING AND TEMPS/WIND SPEEDS DECREASING... THE RED FLAG
WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO DROP EARLIER THIS EVENING. UPR LOW WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT CAUSING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA. OVERALL... FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON SKY COVER AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS.
MAXWELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS... WINDS DECREASING AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 8-10 KT
RANGE OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NW AT KGAG/KWWR
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 21Z. CLOUDS LIMITED TO SCT/BKN CIRRUS AS AIR
REMAINS VERY DRY BELOW 500 MB.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/
DISCUSSION...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REAPPEAR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THOUGH A WEDGE OF
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS QUITE LIKELY IN NORTHWEST OK...THIS DRY
AIR WILL BE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH AND WIND SPEEDS THERE SHOULD BE
MUCH LIGHTER THAN THOSE MEASURED TODAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND
MODERATELY LOW HUMIDITY WILL KEEP FIRE POTENTIAL IN THE HIGH
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA.
REGARDING THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT AND PRECIP EVENT FOR
SUNDAY...IT SEEMS THAT THE MAJOR LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE A
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LOCATION RELATIVE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
SOUTHEAST OF A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ROUGHLY DIVIDE THE CWA IN HALF BY AROUND 12Z SUNDAY.
AS THE JET STREAK CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST...LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY DIMINISH. THE LOCATION OF THE JET FORECAST BY THE
GFS/ECMWF AND THE EXPECTED MOISTURE FIELD FAVOR LOW POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ARE DERIVED FROM SREF GUIDANCE...WITH MAV
GUIDANCE SEEMINGLY TOO COLD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TOO WARM BEHIND
IT.
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z
ECMWF CAME IN SIMILAR TO THE 00Z RUN FROM LAST NIGHT...AND THE
FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT WAS BASED ON THE ECMWF. IT STILL LOOKS AS
IF WE ARE IN FOR A PERIOD OF NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.
TAYLOR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 42 68 46 52 / 0 0 10 40
HOBART OK 42 69 43 51 / 0 0 10 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 47 75 48 58 / 0 0 10 50
GAGE OK 33 65 36 45 / 0 0 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 43 65 43 48 / 0 0 10 30
DURANT OK 46 69 54 62 / 0 0 10 60
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/24/24
