FXUS64 KOUN 110449
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1049 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 821 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009/
UPDATE...THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE SURFACE
HIGH OF ARCTIC ORIGIN...NOW PARTIALLY MODIFIED...WAS CENTERED OVER
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY DRY AIR AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUED TO FAVOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND MOST AREAS HAD SEEN A
RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP SINCE SUNSET. HIGH CLOUDS WERE BECOMING
THICK TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER...WHERE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH RACING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WE EXPECT
THE CLOUD COVER TO PUT A HALT ON THE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. BUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AGAIN FROM THE WEST...AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW US TO HIT THE FORECAST LOWS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY MORNING...THERE HAD BEEN SOME CONCERN
ABOUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FORMING WHEN GULF MOISTURE RETURNS INTO
THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR. THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A LESS
SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE EVENT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SPOTTY...WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS.
BURKE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009/
A RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SOMEWHAT CHILLY
MORNING FRIDAY...BUT A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING US OUT OF THE BASEMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN
CLOSELY FOLLOWED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING
PRECIP TYPE FOR SATURDAY. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE THAT ANY
PRECIP WOULD BE GENERATED VIA ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A LOW LEVEL HUMID
BUT STABLE LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. THIS SPELLS
WEAK LIFT AND LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF NORTHERN OK WHERE DEW
POINTS MAY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S...BUT ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. THIS PERIOD WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS SOME FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. FOLLOWING THIS...IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE IN
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY. THE COLD AIR IS FORECAST
TO SLIDE DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES FROM NORTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INDICATIVE OF A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS. ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT IN SUCH A POSITION THAT WE WOULD STILL BE COOLING
OFF QUITE A BIT. THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE COLD AIR DIRECTLY INTO
THE CWA. IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT WE WILL STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SNOW COVER TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY...FURTHER MAKING A CASE FOR A
COLD SOLUTION.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. BOTH
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN
LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH GRADUAL WARMING
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. GFS/ECMWF AGREE IN GENERAL ON A WESTERN US
RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK...LEAVING US
OPEN TO POSSIBLE FURTHER INTRUSIONS OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH.
TAYLOR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 20 43 29 49 / 0 0 10 20
HOBART OK 16 43 30 54 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 21 47 35 62 / 0 0 10 10
GAGE OK 14 42 23 54 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 16 43 26 42 / 0 0 10 20
DURANT OK 23 45 33 50 / 0 0 20 20
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/09/09
