FXUS64 KCRP 160526
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1126 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...RAIN WL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TNT AND PERSIST THROUGH WED
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH TX DUE TO THE SLOW-MOVING TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
MEXICO AND PERSISTENT FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WED DUE PRIMARILY TO THE
STRONG LIFT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR
CONDITIONS BY 16Z WED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS WL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009/
DISCUSSION...AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GRADUAL
NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE PCPN AREA LOCATED ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY...DEEP SOUTH TX AND NERN MEXICO. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SYNOPTIC ASCENT DUE TO THE FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE
JET. PROLONGED ASCENT WL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED AS OUR CWA
REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN OF THE JET AND AS THE MAIN
MID/UPR TROUGH AXIS HANGS BACK OVER MEXICO. SO OTHER THAN TO MAKE
SOME TWEAKS TO THE EVENING POPS BASED UPON THE DRY SUB-CLOUD
LYR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NERN AREAS...WL KEEP THE VERY HIGH POPS
GOING FOR AFTER 06Z TNT. TEMPS LOOKED ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WERE
NEEDED HERE.
MARINE...BASED UPON THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN SOUTHWARD-MOVING
HIGH PRESSURE AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...WL BUMP UP THE WINDS AND SEAS AREAWIDE. AFTER COORD WITH
TAFB AND BRO...WL OPT TO GO JUST BELOW GALES FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. WL BUMP SEAS TO 13 FT BASED UPON THE LONG NLY
FETCH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SRN OFFSHORE WATERS. WL EXTEND THE ADVY
FOR THE BAYS THROUGH WED MID-MORNING BASED UPON THIS OVERALL
STRONGER GRADIENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 45 48 45 61 46 / 90 90 90 20 10
VICTORIA 43 46 43 58 41 / 70 70 80 30 10
LAREDO 45 49 46 63 47 / 80 70 50 10 10
ALICE 44 46 43 61 44 / 90 90 80 20 10
ROCKPORT 46 49 45 60 48 / 80 90 90 30 10
COTULLA 44 47 45 62 43 / 70 70 50 10 10
KINGSVILLE 45 47 45 61 45 / 90 90 90 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 47 50 46 62 47 / 80 90 90 20 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
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