FXUS65 KABQ 271037
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
337 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST CALM DAY BEFORE THE STORM. WINTRY WEATHER
STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE DIVING DOWN THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE TODAY AND TOMORROW. IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SKIRT SW AZ EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL START ON SATURDAY ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID...EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WHEN THE GREATEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR. THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST. IT STILL APPEARS A BAND
WILL FORM ROUGHLY FORM EL MORRO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS IN AN AREA OF WEAK 700MB CONVERGENCE. RAISED POPS IN
THESE AREAS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE
SREF. MEANWHILE...A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL COME
BARRELING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN NM...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
AID IN SNOW DEVELOPMENT. RIGHT NOW...HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THE SNOW WILL LAST LONG...AS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES NORTHERN OLD MEXICO.
MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING...STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. TRENDS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL DIVE FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH INITIALLY...RESULTING IN MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COOL AS WAS ONCE EXPECTED. THEREFORE...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
HOWEVER...HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD...AND WELL BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM IN THE EXTENDED AND DOES NOT AGREE WELL
WITH ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THUS...LARGELY WENT WITH THE
EURO/GFS ENSEMBLES IN THE EXTENDED WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS AND
PRECIP.
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&&
.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO WILL TRACK INTO
THE TEXAS BIG BEND BY 23Z...SPREADING MAINLY CIRRUS OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SURFACE LEE TROUGH TO STRENGTHEN...WITH A FEW
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BTWN
18Z-23Z. VFR.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO WILL TRACK
INTO TEXAS BIG BEND LATER TODAY...SPREADING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SURFACE LEE TROUGH TO STRENGTHEN
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT VENTILATION TO REMAIN POOR TO MARGINALLY FAIR
THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS THE
UPPER RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE STATE FOR ONE MORE DAY.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE
DETAILS OF THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE SATURDAY FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WESTWARD BUT THE LACK OF COLD AIR ALOFT MAY RESULT IN MUCH OF IT
FALLING AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE
MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR SOME POCKETS OF POOR TO FAIR CONDITIONS IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER
LOW CENTER COULD TRACK THROUGH ARIZONA AND INTO OLD MEXICO...SOUTH
AND WEST OF NEW MEXICO...TAKING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH IT. HOWEVER...A COLDER AIRMASS IS PREDICTED TO IMPACT EASTERN
NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A FRONT PLUNGES
SOUTHWARD...AND THIS FRONT MAY BRING AN EAST WIND INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS
MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND EASTERN PLAINS. VENTILATION WILL RANGE FROM POOR
TO FAIR OVER MUCH OF THE EAST AND NORTH SUNDAY DUE TO LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS.
MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE STATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW SWINGS INTO THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER WITH THE STORM TRACK
MEANDERING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 54 23 48 29 / 0 0 40 50
DULCE........................... 57 16 50 26 / 0 0 40 60
CUBA............................ 59 19 50 26 / 0 0 40 60
GALLUP.......................... 58 22 50 27 / 0 0 40 60
EL MORRO........................ 57 24 51 25 / 0 5 40 60
GRANTS.......................... 60 19 54 24 / 0 0 30 60
QUEMADO......................... 59 24 54 24 / 0 5 40 50
GLENWOOD........................ 66 37 60 36 / 0 0 40 50
CHAMA........................... 55 14 49 22 / 0 0 40 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 26 51 27 / 0 0 20 60
PECOS........................... 60 26 53 26 / 0 0 10 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 55 15 49 23 / 0 0 10 60
RED RIVER....................... 52 17 45 19 / 0 0 20 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 53 18 45 20 / 0 0 20 60
TAOS............................ 54 14 51 24 / 0 0 10 60
ESPANOLA........................ 61 20 56 29 / 0 0 10 50
SANTA FE........................ 55 25 52 27 / 0 0 10 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 56 25 53 31 / 0 0 10 60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 57 32 56 37 / 0 0 10 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 33 57 39 / 0 0 10 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 28 58 36 / 0 0 10 50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 58 32 57 38 / 0 0 20 50
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 26 61 35 / 0 0 10 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 58 30 57 38 / 0 0 20 50
SOCORRO......................... 63 34 62 38 / 0 0 10 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 28 47 30 / 0 0 10 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 60 24 55 31 / 0 0 10 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 29 53 29 / 0 0 5 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 32 58 33 / 0 0 5 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 34 61 38 / 0 0 5 30
RUIDOSO......................... 56 34 55 32 / 0 0 5 30
CAPULIN......................... 64 22 54 21 / 0 0 5 30
RATON........................... 65 20 58 26 / 0 0 5 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 64 29 56 25 / 0 0 5 50
CLAYTON......................... 72 34 61 27 / 0 0 0 20
ROY............................. 67 30 59 28 / 0 0 5 30
CONCHAS......................... 71 31 67 33 / 0 0 5 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 70 36 67 33 / 0 0 5 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 72 31 68 31 / 0 0 0 20
CLOVIS.......................... 69 33 69 33 / 0 0 0 20
PORTALES........................ 70 32 70 35 / 0 0 0 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 72 34 70 35 / 0 0 0 20
ROSWELL......................... 69 34 72 40 / 0 0 0 20
PICACHO......................... 69 36 68 38 / 0 0 0 20
ELK............................. 66 34 62 34 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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