FXUS63 KFGF 081555 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
TODAYS FORECAST LOOKING TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST PART...
BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO DEAL WITH CUTTING BACK ON HIGH TEMPS.
GOT DOWN TO THE MID 20S BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST FA THIS
MORNING. THERE IS SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
MORE THAN ABOUT 10F OF TEMP RISE. MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ARE
WORKING INTO THE SOUTHERN FA WHERE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW COULD
START PRIOR TO 18Z. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW EXIST AFTER 18Z AND
WILL LEAVE LIKELY CHANCES THERE AS IS. HEADLINE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR THE ENTIRE FA TONIGHT WITH THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND CHILLY
TEMPS...CAUSING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE
SNOW BREAKS OUT THIS AFTERNOON TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FAR
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN...DUE TO LIGHT SNOW/SMALL
AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW/AND WIND CHILL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 00Z TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING
TO MVFR AT KFAR AND KBJI AFTER 00Z DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR -SN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PCPN AND TEMPERATURES. WHEN LOOKING 
AT THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS 
CENTERED N OF DVL AND EXTENDS THROUGH E ND INTO E SD. WHEN COMPARING 
THE MODELS...THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO ENDED UP 
USING A MODEL BLEND FOR THE FORECAST...LEANING TOWARD THE ADJMET FOR 
TEMPS AND A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM FOR POPS AND WINDS. 

THE HIGH IS BRIEFLY SHUNTED W AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO LK MI BY 12Z WED. ALTHOUGH THE 
SYSTEM WILL ONLY BRUSH THE AREA...PARTS OF SE ND...WC AND NW MN ARE 
IN THE BEST POSITION TO RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. 
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE IN SE 
ND...WC AND NW MN. GUSTIER WINDS IN THE SAME AREA COULD ALSO PRODUCE 
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. 

IN ADDITION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GREATER THAN 5 MPH IN 
COMBINATION WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WIND 
CHILLS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR 
THIS POTENTIAL AND DETERMINE IF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR...WILL KEEP 
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 

A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE N PLAINS ON FRI 
NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SOME -SN AS WELL AS 
USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR AS ANOTHER HIGH 
PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER THE N PLAINS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

GODON