FXUS64 KLIX 102144
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009
SHORT TERM...
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH MOVING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TN VALLEY. DRY AIRMASS
LOCKED IN OVER REGION WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM NEAR 20 AT MCB
TO MID 30S ON THE SE LA COAST. VERY ACTIVE SRN JET STREAM IS
EVIDENT ON WV WITH STEADY STREAM OF MID AND UPPER MOISTURE MOVING
FROM THE E PACIFIC TO N GULF COAST. DESPITE LOW DEWPOINT STEADY STREAM OF
HIGH CLOUDS AND MODERATE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PUT SOME DAMPENING
FACTOR ON TEMPERATURE DROP OVERNIGHT. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS MAY DIP TO NEAR FREEZE IN SW MS
COUNTIES FOR A SHORT TIME.
MID AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE ON INCREASINGLY SLY
COMPONENT ON FRIDAY AS REGION BECOME INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG
DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD START BREAKING
OUT ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADS OVER REGION. WET BULB COOLING WILL CERTAINLY SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURE INCREASE AS LIGHT RAIN SPREADS OVER REGION AND FALLS
INTO THE DRY LOWER LAYERS OF ATMOSPHERE.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD AS SURFACE BOUNDARY
LIFTS NEWD ACROSS AREA. AREA ALSO BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK
LIFTING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD AS
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AND PW REACH THE 1.5 INCH RANGE. UPDATED
ESF HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...AND
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT EVENT.
SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG E TO NE WINDS LATE FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY
MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS OR AROUND 1 FOOT.
BY LATE SATURDAY...STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING LIFTS NE OF THE
REGION AS JET LIFTS OUT. EXPECT PCPN TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AND
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN TO DECREASE. BASED ON GFS PROG OF DEWPOINT
DISCONTINUITY...SOME TYPE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER AREA
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE OF PRECIP ON
SUNDAY. DENSE FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE OVER THE WEEKEND AS GRADIENT
COLLAPSES AND SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER REGION.
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY IN
THE MON THROUGH WED TIME FRAME SENDING ANOTHER FRONT TO THE GULF
COAST. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADING
INTO AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY.
.COASTAL...
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GULF WATERS AND
TIDAL LAKES WITH HEADLINES IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN GULF.
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS WILL CHANGE FROM NORTH TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AS
A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND MOVES OVER THE MARINE
AREA STARTING FRI AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL TO 25 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A SHORT REPRIEVE WILL OCCUR SUN NIGHT AND MON
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN GULF. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUE BRINGING THE SH/TS JUST OUTSIDE THE
COASTAL WATERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 33 48 38 51 / 10 40 80 80
BTR 36 49 43 56 / 10 60 80 80
MSY 42 50 47 60 / 10 70 80 80
GPT 37 49 43 55 / 10 40 80 80
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
&&
$$
