FXUS62 KCAE 112331
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
631 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH
SATURDAY MORNING AND MORE RAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
RAIN MAY BEGIN MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET IN THE NORTH MIDLANDS
LATE SATURDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL LAST ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUD COVER HAS HELD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 30S.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES DON'T HAVE VERY FAR TO
FALL TO REACH THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 SINCE CURRENT READINGS ARE
IN THE UPPER 30S. FORTUNATELY...WILL HAVE NO PRECIP THROUGH 12Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE SLOWER TO BRING MOISTURE IN FOR SATURDAY MORNING. NOW
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE SNOW
GROWTH AREA FOR CAE AND LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO GET ANY
LIGHT SLEET. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING...LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTH MIDLANDS TO THE NORTH OF CAE MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH AREA TO GO ALONG WITH GOOD EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO SEE
A LITTLE SLEET MIXED WITH THE RAIN IF THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS
EARLY ENOUGH. SO DECIDED TO LIMIT THE MENTION OF ANY SLEET TO
THESE NORTHERN AREAS BUT ONLY FOR ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO. DECIDED TO
BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES UP TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING...33 OR 34
DEGREES IN AREAS WHERE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING JUST IN CASE SOME PRECIP STARTS EARLY. WILL BRING
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANGE NEAR THE PEE
DEE AREA.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH MOST THE RAINFALL OCCURRING THIS PERIOD.
NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL LOWER THE POPS TO 40 PERCENT. SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH AS
WEST WINDS SHOULD BRING IN SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR.
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN ENDS BEFORE NIGHTFALL AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LONG RANGE MODELS. SURFACE HIGH TEMPORARILY
OVER AREA MONDAY BUT GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM THAT
BRINGS RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
MOVES SYSTEM OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LOW CUTS OFF JUST EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND KEEPS UPPER FLOW
NORTHWEST OVER AREA LATER PART OF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY BUT BRING COLD DRY AIR TO REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 50S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. NO FOG EXPECTED DUE TO VERY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...ALONG WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD...AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING....WITH IFR TO
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LOW CIGS ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
AND AREAS OF FOG WILL POSSIBLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS. FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...DCM
