FXUS63 KDDC 270830
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
230 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
TEMPERATURES AND HOW FAST PRECIP MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
00Z 500MB MAP SHOWED STRONG HEIGHT RISES OVER THE PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY, WITH THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. MID
LEVELS CONTINUED TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, ALTHOUGH WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. AT THE SFC, A TROUGH CONTINUED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS,
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT SO FAR. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS TODAY, WHILE THE SFC TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. 850MB TEMPS WILL
BE EVEN WARMER, JUMPING UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS C. WITH
PLENTY OF SUN AND SOME DOWNSLOPE, WE SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY WELL
AND GET INTO THE UPPER 60S AND EVEN SOME LOW 70S. THE UPPER FLOW
WILL START TO SHIFT TONIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO
THE WEST. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD, WITH A
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHWESTERN KS. LOWS WILL STAY MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE TRULY ARCTIC, THERE
WILL BE SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING
BACK BELOW 10 C, AND NOT MUCH DOWNSLOPE, HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 7-10
F COOLER THAN FRIDAY EVEN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SPLIT ON SATURDAY, WITH THE NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE
SOUTHERN CUT OFF LOW STAYS CLOSE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER, WITH NORTH WINDS KEEPING US MIXED, ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS, TEMPS WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH. KEPT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.
THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF BRINGING IN SOME DECENT UVV INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE ON PUTTING IN PRECIP. THE NAM AND UKMET ARE A BIT
SLOWER. AM NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP MOVING IN BEFORE 12Z AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE IT FAIRLY DRY IN THE MID LEVELS, BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS IN THE WEST AFTER 06Z. SFC TEMPS LOOK
TO BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RAIN OR
SNOW MENTION FOR NOW.
DAYS 3-7...
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A TROUGH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH DRAGS
THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY, EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY 12Z.
STILL DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH, IF ANY, SNOW ACCUMULATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM. STAYED WITH THE RAIN OR SNOW PRECIP TYPE, AS LOW
LEVEL INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD LIGHT RAIN, BUT THE THICKNESS FIELDS
ALL SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW. BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT, DID ADD A SLIGHT 15
PERCENT POP IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND FLOWS ACROSS THE NW
KANSAS-NEBRASKA AREA ON WEDNESDAY. IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
THEN, SO WENT WITH WITH LIGHT SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE, AND AS
MENTIONED, ONLY 15 PERCENT POPS. THEN, AROUND THURSDAY MORNING, THE
ECMWF HAS A STRONG SIGNAL SOME ARCTIC AIR WILL INVADE THE PLAINS AND
PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. THE GFS MODEL, HOWEVER, IS NO WHERE
CLOSE TO BEING AS COLD AS THE ECMWF. LOWERED TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST, THURSDAY, THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT
THIS TIME, HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIP, BUT WE OFTEN GET LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES WHEN ARCTIC AIR BLASTS IN THAT QUICKLY.
&&
AVIATION...
BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE IN VFR CATEGORY, AND WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 28 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 68 26 56 31 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 70 32 58 31 / 0 0 0 20
LBL 70 29 60 33 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 69 28 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
P28 70 35 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN26/12/12
